麥格里：忘了中美貿易戰吧

關於中美貿易戰，在我們通過博鼇宣布新的開放之後，川普顯然有點方了。幾個小時之前，川普發了一條推，把被自己否定的踢屁屁重新弄了出來，顯然從氣勢上看億一鼓作氣，再而衰，三而竭，川普已經到三了！

忘記川普吧  馬上進入MSCI時間

對於投資者來說，貿易戰和關稅可能成為一個不斷重複折騰的東西，但已經不是主流了，很快，進入數據時間，6月中國又要進入MSCI時間了。

中國先知有一句話叫做一鼓作氣，再而衰，三而竭。從中美這次的貿易摩擦來看，顯然提出打仗是川普，中國這邊基本上就是太極大法，反正你川普來的都被我們無形中吸收，然後沒了。

如果交易明顯好於歐巴馬版本的的交易，才會加入TPP。 我們已經與TPP的十一個國家中的六個國家達成雙邊協議，並且正在努力與這些國家中最大的國家 – 日本達成協議 – 日本多年來一直嚴厲打擊我們的貿易！

上一次川普把日本的踢屁屁踢掉了，但要記住日本也是船票的貿易敵人，所以這次川普一邊說給中國施壓，一邊把踢屁屁這老東西弄出來，明顯是有點方了，在長期貿易戰的對決下，需要中國這樣的太極，而不是川普這樣的咋呼。

對於投資者來說，貿易戰不太可能是一個決定因素，總會談好，無非就是討價還價。主要的還是回到基本面。

瑞銀：MSCI納中國A初期將吸引185億美元流入 海外投資者未提前布局

– 國際投行瑞銀中國合資券商—瑞銀證券周四發佈簡評稱，MSCI指數納入A股將於6月起實施，預計初期A股市場有望吸引185億美元淨流入。不過目前尚未發現有證據表明海外投資者已提前布局MSCI指數的成份A股。

瑞銀證券中國首席策略分析師高挺在報告中稱，雖然MSCI指數中235隻成份A股在去年已吸納了約3,000億元人民幣的資金淨流入，但在MSCI納入A股的決定宣布後，海外投資者及中國公募基金對這些個股的配置比例並沒有明顯的傾斜。

報告指出，從當前倉位布局來看，在MSCI成分A股中，外國投資者一直超配可選消費、必需消費和醫療保健板塊，同時低配銀行、能源和工業板塊，而且超/低配的幅度大於中國公募。就風格而言，外國投資者更青睞高股本回報（ROE）、高歷史每股收益（EPS）增速以及高EPS上調頻次等因子，而且和中國公募相比顯得更風險規避。

“就MSCI成分A股而言，我們認為近期市場的回調在一定程度上緩解了投資者對估值的顧慮。”報告認為。

去年中，MSCI明晟公司(MSCI.N)宣布自今年起首批235隻大盤A股將成為MSCI新興市場指數的成分股。納入的第一步定於6月1日實施，納入比例為2.5%，該比例將於9月3日提高到5%。

Key points

 New 2018 target: up 20% for MSCI China (from 25-35% previously), 10% for Hang Seng Index.

 We add Oil & Gas and Discretionary to an overweight view but change Telecom to equalweight and Autos and Internet to underweight.

 Near-term catalyst is 1Q earnings to be released over the next few weeks,with Internet sector being a key focus.

關鍵點

2018年新目標：摩根士丹利中國（上升25-35％）上漲20％，10％為恒生指數。

我們增加石油和天然氣和自由裁量權的超重視圖，但改變電信等重量和汽車和互聯網減持。

近期催化劑是未來幾周內將公布的第一季度盈利，因特網部門是重點。

Toning down 2018

細化2018年

 The China-US trade dispute triggered a stock market correction late January, and we expect the uncertainties of its outcome to continue to weigh on market sentiment during 2Q18 but have limited impact on fundamentals. The swing factor should be 1Q18 corporate earnings to be released in coming weeks.

The focus will be on the Internet sector, which contributed 60% of 2017 market rally but has slowed its upward earnings revision last two months. We believe sentiment and liquidity are more influential than fundamentals in affecting fullyear market performance. Thus, we pare down our full-year expectation from 25-35% growth for MSCI China to 20% and 10% for Hang Seng Index.

中美貿易糾紛一月底引發股市調整，我們預計其結果的不確定性將繼續影響市場 市場情緒在二季度有所上升，但對基本面的影響有限。 震盪因素應該是未來幾周內公布的1Q18企業盈利。

重點將放在互聯網領域，占2017年市場的60％反彈，但最近兩個月放緩了向上的盈利調整。 我們相信情緒和流動性比基本面對全面影響更具影響力市場業績。 因此，我們削減了全年的預期摩根士丹利資本國際中國的增長率為25-35％，恒生指數為20％和10％。

 We add Oil & Gas and Discretionary to an overweight view but change Telecom to equalweight and Autos and Internet to underweight. We keep an overweight view on Properties and Materials on strong earnings momentum and equalweight on Banks and Insurance but focus on stock picking.

Proprietary fund analysis

 We refresh our analysis of top HK/China retail funds. Median 1Q18 performance was 1.5% versus MSCI China at 1.8%. 20% of the funds were in negative territory, while ten achieved more than 5% return in 1Q18. The most widely held stocks remained Tencent and Alibaba but fund exposure decreased slightly during 1Q18. On the other hand, weightings increased for Banks, Insurance and Healthcare. Oil & Gas stakes were relatively unchanged. Telecom holdings continued to trend down.

 Healthcare and Discretionary (excluding Autos, Gaming, Media, E-commerce and Education) are the best-performing sectors YTD, and major funds had correctly overweighted them, followed by Utilities, Material, Properties and Staples. Autos and Telecom were the worst.

 HK retail fund net redemption continued and has accumulated US$6bn since mid 2015, with an average of US$220m per month. This was significantly outsized by the accumulated net buy from both Shanghai and Shenzhen

southbound of US$92bn, with an average of US$5bn per month.

Outlook

 1Q18 enjoyed the third-highest rolling forward EPS growth since 2000, at 9% after strong 2017 growth of 23%. Unfortunately, there have been only three times in the past 18 years when the full-year market was up after a negative 1Q (once only if 1H was down). We believe the key is 2Q market performance, driven by 1Q corporate earnings, especially from the Internet sector. 1Q17 earnings were up 8% (full-year up 24%), and high single-digit growth for 1Q18 should be a threshold for investor confidence in the 2018 market outlook.

Historical analysis

歷史分析

Since 2000, 1Q has been down 11/18 times for Hang Seng Index. Only in three years (2009, 2007 and 2003) did the index rebound to achieve more than 10% full-year growth. For the remaining years, the markets were either down or flat. If the market failed to rebound in 2Q, there was only once (2004) when full-year performance was more than 10%. Looking at the three occasions of 1Q-CY reversal, 1Q03 was the onset of SARS, which cleared by 3Q03; 2007 was a year of intensifying cooling measures in China,

which continued throughout 2007 and 2008; and 1Q09 was experiencing the tail effects of global financial crisis before the Rmb4trn stimulus measures took over. Thus, in two of these three cases (2009 and 2003), there were obvious changes of events which effected reversal of market sentiment.

For 2018, a weak 1Q was triggered by the China-US trade dispute, which started brewing in late January and has led to close to 10% correction of the Hang Seng Index and 30% of MSCI China. Applying the same pattern of reversal in past years, a happy ending for 2018 hinges on an amicable resolution of the ongoing China-US trade dispute. So far, the leaders of both countries seems to have thrown down the gauntlet with one hand and hand out olive branches with the other. For the next few months, we don’t expect them to tone down the rhetoric, especially for President Donald Trump, who still suffers weak approval ratings and needs to fight for midterm elections of the House of Representatives in November.

Unless there are bigger geopolitical issues or Black Swan events, the uncertainties surrounding the China- US relationship will continue to be the focus of investors.