20180218美國民間消費狀況

國際金融商品局勢分析,分享一些投資心得,資料僅供參考,信者恆信

重要訊息提醒
2018年聯準會利率會議日期March20-21*、May1-2、June12-13*、Jul31~Aug1、September25-26*、November7-8、December18-19*

美國股市進入漲多修正期以後,全球投資人全面轉為保守,但我仍然持續建議投資人,應該趁市場出現恐慌之際,以現金加碼股市,雖然股市修正還未必落底,但行情最低點本來就難以預測,投資人可以做的,就是確保美國總體經濟成長沒問題的前提下,在相對低點價位,分批加碼,我強調不是一次加碼,分散多次進場,可以允許投資人有看錯的機會,這是相對好的應變策略

美國的總體經濟相對樂觀,其實從消費者信心就可以看出來,指數攀升到2009年以來最高點,這完全反映,美國民眾對於就業前景和收入成長到樂觀,企業的擴大投資也讓民眾有所感受,於是景氣樂觀反應在統計數據上

美國的消費力驚人,而且成長力道仍然強勁,從美國對中國和歐盟的進口額來看,美國的景氣成長往外溢散到出口國,中國和歐盟就是受惠者,東亞地區也是,只是數據是直接進口或複進口的差別,美國的進口成長力道,截至2018年1月為止,我認為仍然沒有減緩的跡象,3月以後就不會有寒害對消費的負面影響,消費力還在,進口就依然樂觀,從美國製造業和非製造業ISM的訂單指數也可以觀察出來,上游企業還願意增加產能,所以我認為美國對於全球經濟成長依然維持火力,這可以大幅減少美國以外的區域市場經濟拖累美國,一人得道,雞犬升天的概念

美國零售銷售成長也是相對強勁,即使1月份東岸面對嚴寒氣候,零售銷售月成長也沒有衰退,扣除汽車銷售,美國零售銷售從2017年7月以來,月增率都是正成長,2018年1月則是零成長,整體看來,民間消費成長仍然相當穩健,而且短期內還不會下降,只要美國民間消費火力還在,投資人就不用太早擔心,美國股市出現崩盤,股價可能短期高估,但不會是金融海嘯的暴跌幅度

不過美國人的消費力再強,手上的資本還是有限的,消費擴張一旦走強,那麼樂觀的時間就會倒數計時,2013年美國實質個人消費支出是觸底回升的一年,2014年初已經完全回溫,不過在那之後,2009年以來的美國人儲蓄率,再度從高點下降,因為景氣轉為樂觀,人們開始願意把儲蓄拿出來消費

2016年初以來,美國實質個人消費支出繼續擴張,但儲蓄率卻明顯下降,這意義著,美國人把儲蓄領出來消費的情況更為明顯,等待這波儲蓄率燒盡,美國民間消費再擴張的柴火就暫時耗盡,景起也會從過熱進入冷卻期,我想再過個2~3季,我對美國景氣就不會這麼樂觀了

從美國的消費、儲蓄、零售、進口,其實不難看出美國景氣仍然處於高檔區,在高檔區還沒走完以前,投資人仍然可以對股市維持樂觀,一旦景氣從高點下滑,美國人的相關信用債務違約,其實會很明顯上升,上一波股市大崩潰是2007年第四季,但是美國景氣從2006年就開始下降,相關債務違約比例明顯上升,2006年初就可以看到,在2018年初,這徵兆還沒有看見,近期只有汽車和信用卡貸款違約率溫和上升,學生貸款違約率雖然偏高,不過暫時還是穩定的,所以美國短期內民間財務還會是相對健全,投資人還不用過早擔心大規模金融蕭條出現,因為實體經濟是人,民間消費動力是體力,體力還在,人可以繼續跑,股市是狗,不管狗短期超前或落後,終究還是會回到主人的身邊。

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這是關於外幣投資的工具書,看賺線圖輕鬆賺外匯 http://tinyurl.com/o89j2yb
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這是關於總體經濟的工具書,自主投資之鑰http://tinyurl.com/o76pbdk

美國減稅法案上路,海外資金將大舉回流美國再投資

川普今年初在空軍一號上自誇,美國股市這麼火熱,主要就是因為他本人施政有方,他認為自己對資本運作和就業市場非常熟悉,覺得自己做得很出色。事實上,先不管他的施政如何,綜觀全球和過去減稅的案例,通常減稅都是有利於經濟短期成長,在2017年裡,就算減稅法案還沒真的通過,但企業和資本市場預期減稅法案通過的機率很高時,就會先一步行動,搶佔先機,擴大投資、添購設備、增聘人才、提高薪資或者增加庫存。

美國進行減稅法案以後,蘋果公司(Apple)決定從海外匯回美國380億美元,並投資美國包含資訊中心在內的300億美元,這是美國Trump總統減稅以後,聲勢最浩大的美國企業回流投資案,美國推出減稅法案以後,全球部分國家也預計或已經推出新稅率改革,因為各國都想要爭取企業投資,對企業有利的稅制,可以有效吸引企業進入投資,美國出現變革,大家紛紛得有所應變。

日本提出,只要將員工平均加薪3%,公司稅從29.97%降到最低20%,中小企業加薪2.5%,最多可享25%稅務減免。菲律賓提高含糖飲料、整形手術、採礦、菸草、能源等多項稅率,但調降絕大多數勞工的所得稅,2018年稍晚預計將公司稅從30%下降到25%。法國打算將公司稅從33.3%逐年下降到25%,廢除富人稅,只保留資產超過130萬歐元家庭的0.55%至1.8%富人稅;丹麥將逐漸調降所得稅、家庭服務、退休金、汽車牌照等項目的稅率;印度則是將高度複雜的貨品與服務銷售稅(GST)統一名目,以前超過10多項的聯邦稅和省稅,簡化至一種。台灣也縮小「內資」和「外資」的所得稅差異,降低台灣本土資金外流的誘因。

資金全球流動,租稅成本就是競爭力

在現今全球化的驅動下,資本的流動是非常快速的,哪裡有利潤,租稅成本較低,資金就往哪流動。美國總統川普本身就是商人,他非常了解稅率會影響企業投資意願和資本停泊套利的習性,這不僅是影響美國本身,甚至是引起全球金融資本流動的關鍵政策,對於美國的經濟發展其實相當有利,美國稅改不只是美國的事,對外還會大幅影響外國產業與經濟政策。國際貨幣基金(IMF)在《世界經濟展望》(WEO)報告中,認為共和黨減稅法案讓美國經濟成長率可以高於原本的預期,這對美國的股市很有正面刺激作用。

而且影響不只在股市,因為美國企業長年在海外停泊的現金非常龐大,2016年度美國企業停泊在海外的未匯回獲利高達2.4兆美元(約新台幣75兆元);高盛(Goldman Sachs)估算,2017年所有美國企業海外總資產將超過3兆美元,精明的美國企業在減稅法案通過後,包含Apple、Microsoft、Johnson and Johnson、P&G、Qualcomm、Cisco、Google、Oracle等國際著名企業,在利潤的驅趕之下勢必會把長期停泊境外的資產分批匯回美國。

美國政府看準了這一點,自然不會讓自家企業面對較差的匯兌價格。舉個例子,美國企業停泊在台灣的現金,以台幣存放,2018年要開始匯回美國了,這時候台幣要換美元,美國政府是讓USD/TWD維持在33,還是讓USD/TWD維持在29?哪個換匯價格對美國企業有利,答案其實相當明顯,只要讓美元維持弱勢,企業海外現金此時將大量非美元貨幣,兌換成美元,再匯回美國,這是多大的匯兌收益啊!美國政府只需要爭取弱勢美元的時間,讓企業們締結遠期外匯合約或其他鎖住匯率的金融工具,這樣就足夠創造可觀的收益。美國財政部長Steven Mnuchin在2018年初所說的,美元轉弱對美國有利,其實意思就在這裡,等到美國企業完成匯兌避險,美元就不需要再維持弱勢了,所以他說美元短期價值並不需要擔憂。

為了促進海外的資本回流美國,美元維持一段時間的弱勢,其實對美國是很重要的。美國企業在匯兌的過程,就能額外獲得匯兌的獲利,稅率減免、匯兌優勢、長期投資、鮭魚返鄉的美名,種種誘因大到讓Apple願意乖乖的回到美國繳稅和投資,能做到這點,其實川普的策略就算成功了。

弱勢美元有助於大企業資金回流美國

或許有人會說,大企業們的海外現金雖然匯回來了,可是政府能收到的稅,因為減稅法案而減少了。其實稅有沒有少收,不能單純這樣計算:停泊在海外的現金,如果不匯回美國,根本沒有稅收可言,不管在哪個國家,最難課稅的對象就是富人和企業,很多人會期待政府從富人身上課更多的稅,縮減中產階級以下的稅賦,進一步達到縮減貧富差距擴大的目標,但這非常困難,因為富人本身對於財富的管理往往比大多數人更精明,就算多管齊下要課徵富人稅,他們也可以雇用專業的會計師和律師,只要成立本土公司或境外公司,資產透過轉移、贈與、捐贈、保險等多元化合法避稅方式,可以很有效地將稅率壓到理想範圍內,政府要強徵富人稅,富人把資產外移就好了,富人稅的實施成本其實相當高,要課徵到如預期的富人稅,幾乎不可能。

通常政府實施加稅,最慘的都是中產階級,自己不會避稅,也無法承擔雇用專業人士的成本,來幫自己避稅,加多少稅都是照單全收,勞工階層也是,基本上稅賦都閃不掉。美國政府在這次的減稅法案先有想到這點,對富人影響較大的贈與稅及遺產稅,終身免稅額都有大幅提高,一個簡單的邏輯,對富人提高稅賦,他會避稅,稅收其實往往比預期的少很多,課不到的稅,形同紙老虎。

因此,與其這樣,不如減少富人稅率,增加他投資的意願,不管投資證券、房地產、商品,還是公司,透過資本利得、所得、股息股利去課稅,這樣反而比較有效率,甚至還有機會吸引到外國的富人前來投資,因為外國富人也可能因為當地的高稅率,正愁要如何減稅,如今美國減稅了,反而增加他移動資本的誘因,從這些角度來看,美國的減稅政策,做的正是時候。

http://www.naipo.com/Portals/1/web_tw/Knowledge_Center/Editorial/IPNC_180207_1501.htm

20180211新興市場近況

近期歐美股市波動相當大,還有東亞各國的股市也全面驟跌,用股災來描述一點也不過分,因為下跌速度真的是很罕見的高效率,從下圖美國S&P500指數就可以看出來,2011年的歐債危機,還有2015年的能源崩跌,跌勢價差我標示紅色框框,2018年初的這波跌勢,不到9個交易日就達到如此大的價差波動,下跌的斜率很嚇人,下跌的價差竟然不輸給歐債危機和能源崩跌時期,市場很快的就陷入擔心全球金融海嘯再次來臨

其實我最近已經表達過數次,美國股市很高機率是漲多修正,而非大空頭來臨,這篇文章我從新興市場的角度來切入,解釋為何2018年初就進入景氣反轉的機率很低

墨西哥的經濟與股市,受到美國影響相當大,按照以往的歷史經驗,美國只要有股市大修正,墨西哥幾乎都閃不掉,有時還出現意外的大修正,例如2013年的墨西哥股市大修正,這波美股崩跌,墨西哥股市也跟進,雖然綠色框框的跌勢比紅色框框小,不過跌勢搞不好還在進行中,只能說截至2月10號為止,墨西哥股市這波修正,和自身的股市相比,幅度還略輸給歐債危機和能源崩跌時期,接下來看看更多新興市場的表現

印度近期的股市修正可以明顯看出來,遠比2008年金融海嘯、2011年歐債危機、2015年能源崩跌的暴跌價差小許多,印度股市看起來更像是漲多修正

泰國股市近期的修正幅度顯然更小,以往美國股市出現巨大修正時,泰國股市同期也都出現大修正,但這一次的美股大修正,截至2月10號為止,並沒有帶給泰國股市如同歐債危機或能源崩跌時期般的修正幅度

俄羅斯股市受到原物料和能源價格波動的影響較大,歐元區對他也有較大的貿易影響,雖然近期國際油價大跌,不過俄羅斯股市看起來修正幅度並不像美國股市那樣恐慌

土耳其股市向來受到國際金融影響相當深,2008年歐債危機、2011年歐債危機、2015年能源崩跌,土耳其股市的修正規模也都相當大,但近期土耳其股市的修正,看起來比上述股災的規模小多了,難得美國股市大跌,規模已經和2011年歐債危機、2015年能源崩跌時期差不多,但土耳其股市卻沒有被牽累

德國DAX股市近期跌勢跟上美國股市的跌勢,截至2月10號,DAX近期的跌勢只有2015年跌勢的50%火力,美國股災對德國股市造成的衝擊顯然還沒那麼大,對於同樣在歐元區的義大利股市來說,負面影響更小

希臘股市的修正更輕微,看起來僅是漲多拉回,跌勢比德國和義大利股市還小

位於非洲的埃及,以往股市波動都會跟進美股,美股大跌,埃及股市幾乎都有跟進,But,這次看起來顯然還沒有…

位於南半球的澳洲股市,修正幅度仍然相對小,遠比不上2011年歐債危機、2015年能源崩跌時期的高低價差

同樣位於南半球的巴西股市,雖然出現漲多修正,不過修正幅度也是比2011年歐債危機、2015年能源崩跌時期還小

現今全球化已經把絕大部分國家的經濟都綁在一起,產生連動影響,以往美國股市大跌,新興市場通常都好不到哪去,畢竟美國這個全球最大的消費市場,只要消費力道一緊縮,全球各國幾乎都會直接或間接造成負面影響,然後造成股市修正,然而,2018年初的美國股市大修正,不像以往,帶給新興市場巨大衝擊,當然不是所有新興市場都相安無事,中國股市和墨西哥股市,修正幅度就相對大,但是扣除這些市場,全球許多新興市場仍然跌勢不大

美股累積出現約10%跌勢的跌勢時,很多新興市場的跌勢卻相對縮小,有些新興市場甚至還逆勢上漲,這樣的訊息告訴我們,要不新興市場接下來要延後補跌,要不就是歐美和東亞股市會逐漸回到上漲軌道,以我近期的綜合判斷,我想我表達的很明顯了

 

 

 

20180203美股短線評論

國際金融商品局勢分析,分享一些投資心得,資料僅供參考,信者恆信

重要訊息提醒
2018年聯準會利率會議日期March20-21*、May1-2、June12-13*、Jul31~Aug1、September25-26*、November7-8、December18-19*

美國道瓊指數突然來個666的大跌,金融市場就出現了擔心的聲浪,事實上,我認為這才是末升段應該有的現象,而且較大的波動,應該要越來越頻繁才是,過去幾年,紅色框那樣的1~3%修正,其實出現的較為頻繁,但2016年中以來,這樣的情況都消逝了,投資人逐漸鬆懈,買什麼賺什麼,但這樣的爽日子應該已經結束,接下來投資人要做好自己的籌碼控管,還有更靈活的區間操作,大漲創高要願意減碼,大跌摸底要敢於加碼,當然,現金部位最好還是維持1/3以上,以防意外的殺盤出現,才有現金可以加碼

 

其實我已經期待美股漲多修正一段時間了,回顧近期的分析,我只敢建議投資人抱著原本就持有的美股多頭部位,不建議投資人加碼,頂多不要輕易減碼,因為當你等到回檔出現了,才會有現金可以加碼,但上週大跌難道不是多頭終止,空頭要來臨了嗎?

Of course not這是漲多修正,我會說明我的理由,其實我過去這陣子和公開講座也說過了,美國的實體經濟仍在擴張,而且尚未見頂,這是最重要的原因,因為這意味著FED還在升息循環的中途,而非終點,美國就業市場仍然非常火熱,短期內沒有企業徵才收手的徵兆,這顯示美國民間企業仍然預期未來數個月或數季的生意還不錯,他們願意繼續擴大投資和雇員

美國非製造業ISM指數的內涵,截至1月份為止仍然樂觀,只有庫存呈現小衰退,其他數據仍然全面成長,尤其是價格擴大上揚,這顯示美國通貨膨脹上揚壓力大,企業訂單成長很高機率會繼續增加,企業也會繼續增加雇員,維持供貨速度,非製造業的各項目數據都是樂觀的,只有擴張快慢的程度不同

1月份的製造業ISM內涵顯得後勢仍然樂觀,尤其是價格揚升非常快速,連續23個月都在上升,企業的採購和補庫存一定會再增加,因為面對通貨膨脹和報價上漲的預期心理,企業會願意補貨,order index維持在65以上,factory order扣除運輸項目後,成長情況還是相對樂觀,這不是進入空頭趨勢的徵兆,很多基本面的經濟數據顯示,美國經濟成長熱度還是相對高檔,雖然不保證下半年就不會從高點落差,但至少熱度再維持一季,我個人認為是沒問題的,只要確保總體經濟沒問題,那麼美國股市繼續上漲的機率就很高,或許短線可能出現漲多回檔,但長線我仍然認為較高機率再出現新高點

即便是美債走長空格局,2018年美債各年期殖利率要呈現倒掛的情況,機率仍偏低,最快也要第四季,不會在上半年出現,按照過去歷史經驗,殖利率呈現綠線的躺平模式後,股市延遲一季才進入大規模修正,這顯示FED已經無再升息可能,我提過的各年期美債殖利率,仍然是準確度極高的指標,目前美債短周期到長周期殖利率還是呈現上升的,我估計等到呈現綠線狀態再來擔心也不遲,這應該至少要等FED升息3次,甚至是3%以上的基礎利率水平,短期內,我認為美股崩盤風險仍然不算高,還不用過於擔心,做好手上部位籌碼控管即可,避免融資或槓桿操作,這樣心理壓力就小許多了

綜合以上諸多邏輯推演,2018年初的全球股市大修正,仍然不會是這波景氣循環擴張的結束,雖然股市榮景從2009年一路漲上來可能已接近末期,但多頭末班車,很高機率還未駛出,撐過2018年初回檔大修正後,投資人仍可樂觀期待後勢行情。

http://www.facebook.com/joejoeyourmoney這是Joe的粉絲團,持續有更多資源分享在粉絲團喔
這是Joe的著作,讀者有興趣可以看看書的介紹,相信對於投資和總體經濟會很有幫助
這是關於外幣投資的工具書,看賺線圖輕鬆賺外匯 http://tinyurl.com/o89j2yb
這是關於外匯保證金的工具書,看賺線圖高效率賺外匯 http://tinyurl.com/o89j2yb
這是關於總體經濟的工具書,自主投資之鑰http://tinyurl.com/o76pbdk

2018美國總統Trump國情咨文

美國紐約當地時間1月30日晚9點,美國總統Trump在美國國會發表就任以來的首次年度國情咨文,回顧了本屆共和黨政府履新一年以來的執政歷程與競選承諾的兌現狀況,並提出了下一階段的施政重點。Trump在國情咨文中宣布將投資1.5兆美元建設基礎設施,並重申了更新核武庫、改訂「不公平」貿易協定、加強邊境與移民管控等方針。

Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, first lady of the United States, and my fellow Americans:

Less than one year has passed since I first stood at this podium, in this majestic chamber, to speak on behalf of the American People — and to address their concerns, their hopes, and their dreams. That night, our new administration had already taken very swift action. A new tide of optimism was already sweeping across our land.

Each day since, we have gone forward with a clear vision and a righteous mission — to make America great again for all Americans.

議長先生、副總統先生、各位國會議員、第一夫人,以及我的美國同胞們:自我第一次站在這個講台上,在這個莊嚴的廳堂裡代表美國人民發表演講,關注他們的關切,述說他們的希望,表達他們的夢想以來,已經過去快一年的時間了。

那個晚上,我們的新政府就著手採取了非常迅速的行動。一股嶄新的樂觀情緒席捲了整個國家。從那開始後的每一天,我們都懷著清晰的願景,正義的使命勇往直前,為了全體美國人民的福祉,讓美國再次偉大。

Over the last year, we have made incredible progress and achieved extraordinary success. We have faced challenges we expected, and others we could never have imagined. We have shared in the heights of victory and the pains of hardship. We have endured floods and fires and storms. But through it all, we have seen the beauty of America’s soul, and the steel in America’s spine.

Each test has forged new American heroes to remind us who we are, and show us what we can be.

We saw the volunteers of the “Cajun Navy,” racing to the rescue with their fishing boats to save people in the aftermath of a totally devastating hurricane.

We saw strangers shielding strangers from a hail of gunfire on the Las Vegas Strip.

We heard tales of Americans like Coast Guard Petty Officer Ashlee Leppert, who is here tonight in the gallery with Melania. Ashlee was aboard one of the first helicopters on the scene in Houston during Hurricane Harvey. Through 18 hours of wind and rain, Ashlee braved live power lines and deep water, to help save more than 40 lives. Ashlee, we all thank you. Thank you very much.

We heard about Americans like firefighter David Dahlberg. He is here with us also. David faced down walls of flame to rescue almost 60 children trapped at a California summer camp threatened by those devastating wildfires.

To everyone still recovering in Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Everywhere. We are with you, we love you, and we always will pull through together. Always. Thank you to David and the brave people of California. Thank you very much, David. Great job.

在過去一年,我們實現了了不起的進步和非凡的成就。我們直面已經預料到的和從來沒想像過的挑戰。我們分享了勝利的喜悅和艱辛的痛苦。我們經歷了洪水、火災與風暴。但歷經所有,我們看到了美國美麗的靈魂和鋼鐵的脊樑。

每一次考驗鍛造出了新的美國英雄,都在提醒我們是誰、我們能成為誰。我們看到民間志願團隊「Cajun海軍」駕駛漁船沖向颶風卷席後的受災現場、營救傷員。我們看到陌生人在拉斯維加斯的陣陣槍聲中相互庇護。我們聽說了很多美國人的故事,就像海岸警衛隊海軍軍士Ashlee Leppert,她今晚就在現場,與Melania坐在一起。

哈維颶風期間,Ashlee乘坐一架最先抵達現場的直升機。經歷了18個小時的狂風驟雨,Ashlee冒著生命危險,從深水中挽救出40多條生命。Ashlee,我們都感謝你,非常感謝你。

我們聽說了像消防員David Dahlberg這樣的美國人的故事。他今天也在場。David迎著重重困難,營救了被困在加州夏令營的60名兒童。對著所有還在德克薩斯、佛羅里達、路易斯安那、波多黎各和維京群島恢復重建的受災民眾,我想告訴大家,我們與你們同在,我們愛你們,我們必將一起度過難關,一如既往。

感謝David,和像David一樣勇敢的加州人民。非常感謝你們,David,做得好。

Some trials over the past year touched this chamber very personally. With us tonight is one of the toughest people ever to serve in this House — a guy who took a bullet, almost died, and was back to work 3½ months later: the legend from Louisiana, Congressman Steve Scalise. I think they like you, Steve.

We are incredibly grateful for the heroic efforts of the Capitol Police officers, the Alexandria Police, and the doctors, nurses, and paramedics who saved his life, and the lives of many others some in this room, in the aftermath.

Yes, in the aftermath of that terrible shooting, we came together, not as Republicans or Democrats, but as representatives of the people. But it is not enough to come together only in times of tragedy. Tonight, I call upon all of us to set aside our differences, to seek out common ground, and to summon the unity we need to deliver for the people. This is really the key. These are the people we were elected to serve.

Over the last year, the world has seen what we always knew: That no people on Earth are so fearless, or daring, or determined as Americans. If there is a mountain, we climb it. If there is a frontier, we cross it. If there is a challenge, we tame it. If there is an opportunity, we seize it.

 

So let us begin tonight by recognizing that the state of our union is strong because our people are strong.

And together, we are building a safe, strong, and proud America.

在過去的一年裡,有些難關甚至觸及這個大廳裡的人。今晚,這個廳堂裡有一個人堪稱國會史上最堅強的議員之一,他中了一槍幾乎死去,但在三個半月後又回到了工作職缺。他是來自路易斯安那州的傳奇,眾議院議員史蒂夫·斯卡利斯。

史蒂夫,我想他們(指鼓掌的國會議員)很喜歡你。我們由衷感激那些付出英勇努力的國會警察、亞歷山德里亞當地警察、醫生、護士和護理人員。他們挽救了他的生命,以及這個大廳裡的其他很多生命。

在那次可怕的槍擊事件後,我們團結一心,不是以共和黨人或民主黨人的身份,而是作為美國人民的代表。但只在悲劇發生時才聚集在一起是不夠的。今晚,我呼籲大家拋開分歧,尋求共同點,建構一個我們需要為人民建立的共同體。這才是關鍵。他們是當選的我們,需要去服務的人。

在過去的一年裡,世界見證了我們一直以來都知道的事實,那就是美國人民是世界上最無畏、勇敢、堅定的。如果有一座山,我們會翻過它。如果有一道邊界,我們會跨越它。如果有一個挑戰,我們會戰勝它。如果有一個機會,我們會抓住它。所以今晚,讓我們認同我們的聯邦依然堅強,因為我們的人民依然堅強。

Since the election, we have created 2.4 million new jobs, including 200,000 new jobs in manufacturing alone. Tremendous. After years and years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages.

Unemployment claims have hit a 45-year low. And something I’m very proud of, African American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded, and Hispanic American unemployment has also reached the lowest levels in history.

Small business confidence is at an all-time high. The stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion and more in value in just this short period of time. That is great news for Americans’ 401(k), retirement, pension, and college savings accounts have gone through the roof.

And just as I promised the American people from this podium 11 months ago, we enacted the biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history.

Our massive tax cuts provide tremendous relief for the middle class and small businesses.

To lower tax rates for hard-working Americans, we nearly doubled the standard deduction for everyone. Now, the first $24,000 earned by a married couple is completely tax free. We also doubled the child tax credit.

A typical family of four making $75,000 will see their tax bill reduced by $2,000 — slashing their tax bill in half.

In April, this will be the last time you ever file under the old and very broken system — and millions of Americans will have more take-home pay starting next month. A lot more.

我們將一起建設一個安全、強大且驕傲的美國。自選舉以來,我們創造了240萬個工作職缺,其中僅僅是製造行業就新增了20萬個職缺。非常了不起。而且,在多年的停滯後,現在我們終於看到工資水平開始上漲。失業率達到了45年以來的新低。

另一件讓我非常自豪的事情是,非裔美國人的失業率達到歷史最低水平,西班牙裔美國人的失業率同樣處在有史以來的最低點。小企業的信心在歷史上從未達到如此高的水平。短短一段時間內,股市交易屢創新高,創下8兆美元的紀錄,甚至更高。

對美國人民來說,好消息是,401k計劃、退休金、養老金和大學儲蓄金都在不斷上漲。正如11個月前我向美國人民所做出的承諾,我們已經實行了美國歷史上最大的減稅和改革。

我們大規模減稅為中產階級和小型企業帶來巨大解脫,為辛勤工作的美國人降低稅率。我們幾乎把每個人的標準扣除額增加了一倍。現在,一對夫婦賺的第一個2.4萬美元,是完全免稅的。我們還將兒童稅收抵免提高一倍。一個年收入7.5萬美元的典型四口之家將減少納稅2000美元,相當於稅款減半。從今年四月起,你將不必根據老舊失靈的稅制交稅。從下個月開始,數以百萬計的美國人將獲得更多實得工資。比現在還多。

We eliminated an especially cruel tax that fell mostly on Americans making less than $50,000 a year — forcing them to pay tremendous penalties simply because they could not afford government-ordered health plans. We repealed the core of the disastrous Obamacare — the individual mandate is now gone.

We slashed the business tax rate from 35% all the way down to 21%, so American companies can compete and win against anyone else anywhere in the world. These changes alone are estimated to increase average family income by more than $4,000. A lot of money.

Small businesses have also received a massive tax cut, and can now deduct 20% of their business income.

我們為年收入低於5萬美元的美國人取消了一項特別殘酷的稅收條例。他們被迫支付巨額罰款,僅僅因為負擔不起政府制定的醫療計劃。我們已經廢除了災難性的Obama醫改的核心規定,如今個人強制參保令已經消失。謝天謝地。

我們將營業稅稅率從35%降低到21%,這樣美國公司就可以與世界上任何地方的任何人競爭。根據統計,僅這些變化,家庭平均收入就會增加超過4000美元,這可是一大筆錢。小企業也獲得了大規模減稅,現在可以扣除20%營業收入。

Here tonight are Steve Staub and Sandy Keplinger of Staub Manufacturing — a small beautiful business in Ohio. They have just finished the best year in their 20-year history. Because of tax reform, they are handing out raises, hiring an additional 14 people and expanding into the building next door. Good for you.

One of Staub’s employees, Corey Adams, is also with us tonight. Corey is an all-American worker. He supported himself through high school, lost his job during the 2008 recession, and was later hired by Staub, where he trained to become a welder. Like many hard-working Americans, Corey plans to invest his tax‑cut raise into his new home and his two daughters’ education. Corey, please stand. And he’s a great welder. I was told that by the man who owns that company that’s doing so well. So congratulations, Cory.

今晚,在座的Steve Staub和Sandy Keplinger,他們的Staub製造公司,一家坐落俄亥俄州的小而美的企業,剛剛經歷了創業二十年來最景氣的一年。

由於稅收改革,他們正在加薪,再僱用14名員工,並擴張到到隔壁大樓。感覺不錯。

Staub公司的一位員工Corey Adams,今晚也和我們在一起。Corey是純正的美國工人,他從高中開始養活自己,在2008年的經濟衰退中,失去了工作,後來被Staub返聘,在那裡接受培訓成為一名焊工。和許多勤奮的美國人一樣,Corey計劃將他被免除的稅款,用於投資他的新家,以及他兩個女兒的教育。Corey,請站起來。這家經營得很好的公司,他們老闆告訴我,Corey是一個很棒的焊工。恭喜你,Corey。

Since we passed tax cuts, roughly 3 million workers have already gotten tax cut bonuses — many of them thousands and thousands of dollars per worker and it’s getting to be more every month, every week. Apple has just announced it plans to invest a total of $350 billion in America and hire another 20,000 workers.

And just a little while ago, Exxon-Mobil announced a $50 billion investment in the United States. Just a little while ago.

This in fact is our new American moment. There has never been a better time to start living the American Dream.

So to every citizen watching at home tonight — no matter where you have been, or where you come from, this is your time. If you work hard, if you believe in yourself, if you believe in America, then you can dream anything, you can be anything, and together, we can achieve absolutely anything.

Tonight, I want to talk about what kind of future we are going to have, and what kind of nation we are going to be. All of us, together, as one team, one people, and one American family can do anything.

We all share the same home, the same heart, the same destiny, and the same great American flag.

Together, we are rediscovering the American way.

In America, we know that faith and family, not government and bureaucracy, are the center of American life. The motto is “in God we trust.”

自從我們立法通過減稅以來,大約有300萬人都從中受益。其中每個人都減免了數以千計美元的稅務,而且減免的金額每月甚至每周都在增加。蘋果公司剛剛宣布計劃在美國國內投資3.5億美元,並增加兩萬個工作職缺。同時,就在不久之前,Exxon-Mobil宣布在美國境內投資500億美元,就在不久之前。事實上,現在就是我們全新的美國時刻。是我們開始實踐美國夢的最佳時機。

因此,對於今晚守候在家的每一位美國公民,無論你身處何方、來自何處,這就是你的時代。勤勉工作、堅信自我,如果你對美國保有信任,那麼你就可以對任何事情心懷夢想並予以實現。與各位同在,我們無所不能。

在這個晚上,我希望談談我們將去向何方,我們將會成為一個怎樣的國家。我們所有人只要團結成一個團隊,一個民族,一個美國大家庭,就可以做到任何事情。同在這一面偉大的美國旗幟之下,我們共享家園,共通心意,共履使命。我們正在一起重新探索美國道路。在美國,我們知曉生活的核心是圍繞著信仰與家庭,而非政府與官僚。「相信上帝」是我們恪守的箴言。

And we celebrate our police, our military and our amazing veterans as heroes who deserve our total and unwavering support.

Here tonight is Preston Sharp, a 12-year-old boy from Redding, California, who noticed that veterans’ graves were not marked with flags on Veterans Day. He decided all by himself to change that and started a movement that has now placed 40,000 flags at the graves of our great heroes. Preston: a job well done.

Young patriots like Preston teach all of us about our civic duty as Americans. And I met Preston a little while ago, and he is something very special. That I can tell you. Great future. Thank you very much for all you’ve done. Preston’s reverence for those who have served our nation reminds us why we salute our flag, why we put our hands on our hearts for the Pledge of Allegiance, and why we proudly stand for the national anthem.

Americans love their country. And they deserve a government that shows them the same love and loyalty in return.

我們也讚美我們的警察,我們的軍隊,以及我們的退伍軍人,他們是我們的英雄,值得我們徹底而堅定的支持。今晚我們請來了Preston Sharp,從加利福尼亞州Redding來的12歲男孩,他注意到在退伍軍人節那天,退伍軍人的墳墓上沒有裝飾國旗。他決定親自發起一項運動,迄今已經為退伍軍人的墳墓插上了40000面國旗。Preston,幹得漂亮。

像Preston這樣的愛國者們教會了我們所有人如何去踐行我們作為美國人的公民責任。我剛剛還遇到了Preston,我可以說,他是個很特別的人。他的未來會很美好。Preston,非常感謝你所做的一切,非常感謝。Preston對那些為國效力者的敬意提醒著我們,我們為什麼要升起國旗,為什麼要將雙手放在胸口默念我們忠誠的誓言,為什麼要自豪地為國歌肅然起立。

美國人民熱愛他們的國家,他們值得擁有一個能夠對他們回報以同樣的愛和忠誠的政府。

For the last year we have sought to restore the bonds of trust between our citizens and their government.

Working with the Senate, we are appointing judges who will interpret the Constitution as written, including a great new Supreme Court justice, and more circuit court judges than any new administration in the history of our country.

We are totally defending our Second Amendment and are taking historic actions to protect religious liberty.

And we are serving our brave veterans, including giving our veterans choice in their health-care decisions. Last year, the Congress passed, and I signed, the landmark VA Accountability Act. Since its passage, my administration has already removed more than 1,500 VA employees who failed to give our veterans the care they deserve — and we are hiring talented people who love our vets as much as we do.

And I will not stop until our veterans are properly taken care of, which has been my promise to them from the very beginning of this great journey.

All Americans deserve accountability and respect — and that is what we are giving to our wonderful heroes, out veterans. Thank you. So tonight, I call on the Congress to empower every Cabinet secretary with the authority to reward good workers — and to remove federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people.

In our drive to make Washington accountable, we have eliminated more regulations in our first year than any administration in the history of our country.

We have ended the war on American energy — and we have ended the war on beautiful clean coal. We are now very proudly an exporter of energy to the world.

在過去的一年裡,我們努力重建公民和政府之間的信任。我們和參議院合作,任命了依據原文解讀憲法的法官,包括一名傑出的新任最高法院大法官,我們任命的巡迴法院法官也比歷史上任何一屆政府都多。我們也全力以赴地捍衛我們的憲法第二修正案,採取了歷史性的行動來保護我們的宗教自由。

我們同樣也在回報我們勇敢的退伍軍人,包括允許他們選擇自己的醫療保障。去年,里程碑式的《維吉尼亞州責任法案》在國會通過,也由我簽署。自從該項法案通過以來,我的政府已經開除了超過一千五百名沒能盡責向退伍軍人提供健康服務的維吉尼亞州職員。我們同時也在招聘和我們一樣擁戴軍人的人才。在這趟卓越旅程開始之時我就向退伍軍人承諾,他們將得到良好的照顧。直到我實現承諾為止,我不會停止奮鬥。所有的美國人都值得我們的負責和尊重。這也是我們向我們的英雄、我們的退伍軍人所給予的。感謝你們。

因此今晚我向國會進行呼籲,賦予每一個內閣部長權力,獎勵表現良好的人員,開除辜負了美國人民和公眾信任的人員。為了讓華盛頓更負責任,本屆政府在執政第一年減少的管制比以往任何一屆政府都多。

我們終結了對美國能源的戰爭。我們也終結了對美麗的清潔煤炭的戰爭。我們現在是一個驕傲的能源出口國。

In Detroit, I halted government mandates that crippled America’s great, beautiful autoworkers — so that we can get the Motor City revving its engines once again. And that’s what’s happening.

Many car companies are now building and expanding plants in the United States — something we haven’t seen for decades. Chrysler is moving a major plant from Mexico to Michigan; Toyota and Mazda are opening up a plant in Alabama, a big one, and we haven’t seen this in a long time. It’s all coming back.

Very soon, auto plants and other plants will be opening up all over our country. This is all news Americans are totally unaccustomed to hearing — for many years, companies and jobs were only leaving us. But now they are roaring back they are coming back they want to be where the action is. They want to be in the United States of America.

Exciting progress is happening every single day.

To speed access to breakthrough cures and affordable generic drugs, last year the FDA approved more new and generic drugs and medical devices than ever before in our country’s history.

在底特律,我廢止了那些傷害美國偉大汽車工人們的法令,如此我們才能讓這個汽車城市重新發動引擎。這就是正在發生的事。不少汽車公司正在美國新建擴建工廠,這是我們幾十年來聞所未聞的。Chrysler將會把一家主要工廠從墨西哥遷至密西根州。Toyota和Mazda也會在阿拉巴馬州開建一家工廠,很大的一家。我們很久都沒見過這種盛況,現在這一切都在捲土重來。

很快,汽車工廠和其他類型的工廠將遍開全國各地。這個消息美國人聽起來會感到完全不習慣。這麼多年,那些公司和工作機會只會離開我們。但現在,他們正咆哮歸來,它們歸來了,它們想置身於行動發生之地。它們想要留在美國。那就是他們想要的地方。

令人激動的進步每一天都在發生,為了能夠加快我們尋找突破、治療方法和廉價仿製藥的速度,去年,食品藥物監督管理局批准的新式和仿製藥物及醫療器械達到史上最多。

我們同樣相信患有致命疾病的病人也應該享有立即接受試驗性治療的權利——這些治療可能挽救他們的生命。晚期的病人不應該被迫從其他國家尋找治療方法。我想給他們在本國得到治療的機會。國會應該給這些出色的美國人嘗試的權利。我的一個重要工作是降低處方藥的價格。在許多國家,這些藥物的價格都比美國更低。這非常,非常地不公平。這也是為什麼今年我將著重指揮我的政府,努力修正藥物昂貴價格帶來的不公。價格將會大幅降低。請期待。

We also believe that patients with terminal conditions, terminal illness, should have access to experimental treatments immediately that could potentially save their lives.People who are terminally ill should not have to go from country to country to seek a cure — I want to give them a chance right here at home. It is time for the Congress to give these wonderful incredible Americans the “right to try.”

One of my greatest priorities is to reduce the price of prescription drugs. In many other countries, these drugs cost far less than what we pay in the United States and it’s very, very unfair. That is why I have directed my administration to make fixing the injustice of high drug prices one of my top priorities for the year. And prices will come down substantially, watch.

America has also finally turned the page on decades of unfair trade deals that sacrificed our prosperity and shipped away our companies, our jobs, and our wealth. Our nation has lost its wealth, and we’re getting it back so fast.

The era of economic surrender is totally over.

From now on, we expect trading relationships to be fair and very importantly to be reciprocal.

We will work to fix bad trade deals and negotiate new ones. And they’ll be good ones. And they’ll be fair.

And we will protect American workers and American intellectual property, through strong enforcement of our trade rules.

As we rebuild our industries, it is also time to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure.

America is a nation of builders. We built the Empire State Building in just one year — isn’t it a disgrace that it can now take 10 years just to get a minor permit approved for the building of a simple road?

I am asking both parties to come together to give us the safe, fast, reliable and modern infrastructure that our economy needs and our people deserve.

美國也終於開始淘汰幾十年來犧牲我國繁榮、帶走了我國企業、工作職缺和財富的不公平貿易條約。我們國家曾經失去了的財富,我們現在正迅速奪回。經濟退讓的時代已經結束。從現在開始,我們期待更加公平的貿易關係——更加重要的是,這些關係必須互惠。

我們將致力於修訂不好的貿易條約,洽談新條約,這些新條約將是良好的,將是公平的。同時,通過嚴格執行我們的貿易規範,美國工人及美國智慧財產權將得到保護。

我們在重振工業的同時,也在重振我們搖搖欲墜的基礎設施。美國是一個建設者的國家。我們僅僅在一年之內就建造好了帝國大廈。所以當建造一條簡單的道路需要花費十年時間取得許可,這難道不就成為了一件極為不光彩的事情嗎。

我呼籲兩黨一起努力,給我們一個安全,快捷,可靠,現代化的基礎設施,這是我們的經濟所需要的,也是我們的人民應得的。

Tonight, I am calling on the Congress to produce a bill that generates at least $1.5 trillion for the new infrastructure investment that our country so desperately needs.

Every federal dollar should be leveraged by partnering with state and local governments, and, where appropriate, tapping into private sector investment — to permanently fix the infrastructure deficit. And we can do it.

Any bill must also streamline the permitting and approval process — getting it down to no more than two years, and perhaps even one.

Together, we can reclaim our great building heritage. We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways all across our land. And we will do it with American heart, American hands and American grit.

We want every American to know the dignity of a hard day’s work. We want every child to be safe in their home at night. And we want every citizen to be proud of this land that we all love so much.

We can lift our citizens from welfare to work, from dependence to independence, and from poverty to prosperity.

As tax cuts create new jobs, let’s invest in workforce development and let’s invest in job training, which we need so badly. Let’s open great vocational schools so our future workers can learn a craft and realize their full potential. And let us support working families by supporting paid family leave.

As America regains its strength, opportunity must be extended to all citizens. That is why this year we will embark on reforming our prisons to help former inmates who have served their time get a second chance at life.

Struggling communities, especially immigrant communities, will also be helped by immigration policies that focus on the best interests of American workers and American families.

For decades, open borders have allowed drugs and gangs to pour into our most vulnerable communities. They have allowed millions of low-wage workers to compete for jobs and wages against the poorest Americans.
今晚,我呼籲國會推出法案,向我國急需的新基礎設施投資至少1.5兆美元。每一份聯邦注資應當有對應的州與地方政府投資向匹配,若情形適當,也可引入私有部門投資,以永久地解決我國的基礎設施負債。我們可以做到。任何法案必須同時簡化項目批准審核程序,保證其在兩年內完成,如果可以,甚至降低到一年。只要共同努力,我們可以復興美國偉大的建築業傳統。

我們希望每一個美國人都知道辛勤工作的尊嚴。我們希望每一個孩子都能在家中得享安眠。我們也希望每一位公民能為這片我們深愛的土地感到驕傲。我們而已把我們的公民從福利維生提升到自力更生,從依賴提升到自立,從貧困提升到富足。

鑒於減稅改革創造了新的工作職缺,讓我們投資給勞動力的發展,讓我們投資給職業培訓,這都是我們非常需要的。我們要開設職業學校,這樣我們未來的工人就能學一門手藝,實現全部潛能。讓我們支持工薪家庭,支持帶薪家庭假期。

隨著美國恢復實力,機會應該遍及每一個公民。這就是為什麼在今年我們會致力於改革鑒於制度,幫助刑滿出獄的囚犯獲得重啟人生的機會。

貧困社區,尤其是移民社區,也會因我們聚焦美國工人與家庭利益的移民政策而獲益。幾十年來,開放的邊界縱容毒品和匪幫進入我們最脆弱的社區。他們讓數以百萬計的低薪勞動力與最貧窮的美國人爭奪工作與工資。

Most tragically, they have caused the loss of many innocent lives.

Here tonight are two fathers and two mothers: Evelyn Rodriguez, Freddy Cuevas, Elizabeth Alvarado and Robert Mickens. Their two teenage daughters — Kayla Cuevas and Nisa Mickens — were close friends on Long Island. But in September 2016, on the eve of Nisa’s 16th birthday, such a happy time it should have been, neither of them came home. These two precious girls were brutally murdered while walking together in their home town. Six members of the savage MS-13 gang have been charged with Kayla and Nisa’s murders. Many of these gang members took advantage of glaring loopholes in our laws to enter the country as unaccompanied alien minors — and wound up in Kayla and Nisa’s high school.

Evelyn, Elizabeth, Freddy, and Robert: Tonight, everyone in this chamber is praying for you. Everyone in America is grieving for you. Please stand. Thank you very much. I want you to know that 320 million hearts are right now breaking for you. We love you. Thank you. But we cannot imagine the depth of that kind of sorrow, but we can make sure that other families never have to endure this pain.

Tonight, I am calling on the Congress to finally close the deadly loopholes that have allowed MS-13, and other criminals gangs, to break into our country. We have proposed new legislation that will fix our immigration laws, and support our ICE and Border Patrol Agents, these are great people. These are great great people. That work so hard in the midst of great danger, so that this can ever happen again.

最悲慘的是,他們還奪走了許多無數的生命。今晚我們請來了兩位父親和兩位母親,Rodriguez,Freddy Cuevas,Elizabeth Alvarado,以及Robert Mickens。他們年輕的女兒,Kayla Cuevas和Nisa Mickens曾經是一對居住在羅德島州的好朋友。

但在2016年12月,Nisa 16歲生日前一天,這原本應該是個好日子,可她們都沒回家。這兩個可愛的女孩被謀殺了——她們一起走在家鄉的道路上,卻被殘忍地謀殺。六個來自野蠻的MS-13匪幫的歹徒被控對這起謀殺負責。很多像這樣的匪幫成員就是利用我們法律上的漏洞,作為非法的、無監護人的外籍閒散青年進入了我們的國家,讓Kayla和Nisa就讀的高中陷入恐慌。

Rodriguez、Freddy、Elizabeth和Robert。我們全體起立,與你們共同哀悼。謝謝。我希望你們知道,3.2億美國人的心靈現在與你們同悲。我們愛你們。謝謝。

喪女之痛是的強烈我們無法想像的,但我們可以保證其他家庭再也不需要承受這種苦痛。

今晚我呼籲國會修補我們法制上的致命漏洞,正是其縱容MS-13之流的犯罪團伙闌入我國。我們提倡以新的立法修補我們的移民法律,支持我們的移民關稅執法局(ICE)和邊境巡檢部門——這些都是很棒的人,很棒,很棒,他們在危險中努力執勤——這樣就能防止慘劇再度發生。

The United States is a compassionate nation. We are proud that we do more than any other country anywhere in the world to help the needy, the struggling, and the underprivileged all over the world. But as president of the United States, my highest loyalty, my greatest compassion, and my constant concern is for America’s children, America’s struggling workers, and America’s forgotten communities. I want our youth to grow up to achieve great things. I want our poor to have their chance to rise.

So tonight, I am extending an open hand to work with members of both parties — Democrats and Republicans — to protect our citizens of every background, color, religion and creed. My duty, and the sacred duty of every elected official in this chamber, is to defend Americans — to protect their safety, their families, their communities, and their right to the American Dream. Because Americans are dreamers, too.

Here tonight is one leader in the effort to defend our country: Homeland Security Investigations Special Agent Celestino Martinez — he goes by DJ and CJ. He said call me either one. So we’ll call you CJ. Served 15 years in the Air Force before becoming an ICE agent and spending the last 15 years fighting gang violence and getting dangerous criminals off of our streets. Tough job. At one point, MS-13 leaders ordered CJ’s murder and they wanted it to happen quickly. But he did not cave to threats or to fear. Last May, he commanded an operation to track down gang members on Long Island. His team has arrested nearly 400, including more than 220 from MS-13 gang members, and I have to tell you what the Border Patrol and ICE have done. We have sent thousands and thousands and thousands of MS-13 horrible people out of this country or into our prisons.

So I just want to congratulate you CJ: You’re a brave guy. Thank you very much. And I asked CJ, “What’s the secret?" He said “We’re just tougher than they are. And I liked that answer. Now let’s get Congress to send you — and all of the people in this great chamber, have to do it, we have no choice — CJ, we’re going to send you reinforcements and we’re going to send them to you quickly.

美國是一個有同情心的國家。我們感到驕傲是因為我們比任何一個國家都付出了更多,去幫助世界上各個角落有需要的、在賺扎的和處於弱勢的群體。但作為美國總統,我至高的忠誠、我最大的同情、我日常的憂慮,都是為了美國的孩子們、美國賺扎的工人和我們被遺忘的社區。

我希望我們的年輕人能夠成長起來幹大事。我希望我們的窮人能有站起來的機會。所以今晚,我向兩黨成員伸出合作之手,去保護我們各種背景、膚色、宗教和信仰的公民。我的職責、以及每一任這個大廳中民選長官的職責,是去守護美國人民,守護她們的安全、她們的家人、她們的社區,和她們實現美國夢的權利。因為美國人也是愛夢想的人。

今晚我們請到了一位捍衛國家事業的佼佼者,移民海關執法局本土安全調查處特別探員Celestino Martinez。他的代號是DJ和CJ。他說,我叫哪個都可以,所以我叫他CJ。他在成為移民海關執法局探員之前在空軍服役了15年,最近15年來又在打擊幫派暴力,把危險的罪犯趕出我們的街道。是份苦差事。

有一次,MS-13匪幫的頭目想要CJ的性命,而且他們要得還很緊。但CJ沒有向危險和恐懼屈服。去年五月,他在長島指揮了一次追蹤匪幫的行動,他的團隊一下子抓獲了近400個幫派分子,其中超過220個來自MS-13幫。CJ,幹得漂亮。

我必須告訴你們邊境巡邏隊和移民關稅執法局的成就。我們將數千名MS-13的恐怖成員送出了我們的國土,或者是送進了我們的監獄。我只想恭喜你,CJ。你是一名勇敢的人。非常感謝你。我問CJ,秘訣是什麼。他只是說,我們比他們更強悍。我喜歡這個答案。

現在,讓全體國會,讓這個大廳裡的所有人為你——我們必須這麼做,我們沒得選擇。CJ,我們要為你送去支援,本總統Trump發誓要增加10000名新的邊境海關執法局探員。而且給你的增援很快就到。這是你需要的。

Over the next few weeks, the House and Senate will be voting on an immigration reform package.

In recent months, my administration has met extensively with both Democrats and Republicans to craft a bipartisan approach to immigration reform. Based on these discussions, we presented the Congress with a detailed proposal that should be supported by both parties as a fair compromise — one where nobody gets everything they want, but where our country gets the critical reforms it needs and must have.

Here are the four pillars of our plan:

The first pillar of our framework generously offers a path to citizenship for 1.8 million illegal immigrants who were brought here by their parents at a young age — that covers almost three times more people than the previous administration covered. Under our plan, those who meet education and work requirements, and show good moral character, will be able to become full citizens of the United States over a 12-year period.

The second pillar fully secures the border. That means building a great wall on the Southern border, and it means hiring more heroes like CJ to keep our communities safe. Crucially, our plan closes the terrible loopholes exploited by criminals and terrorists to enter our country — and it finally ends the horrible and dangerous practice of “catch and release.”

The third pillar ends the visa lottery — a program that randomly hands out green cards without any regard for skill, merit or the safety of American people. It is time to begin moving towards a merit-based immigration system — one that admits people who are skilled, who want to work, who will contribute to our society, and who will love and respect our country.

The fourth and final pillar protects the nuclear family by ending chain migration. Under the current broken system, a single immigrant can bring in virtually unlimited numbers of distant relatives. Under our plan, we focus on the immediate family by limiting sponsorships to spouses and minor children. This vital reform is necessary, not just for our economy, but for our security, and for the future of America.

在接下來的數周內,眾議院和參議院將對一份移民改革法案進行投票。這幾個月以來,我的政府和民主黨及共和黨都進行了多次會面,試圖起草一份兩黨都能同意的移民改革方案。在這些會面的基礎之上,我們向國會提交一份兩黨都應該支持的細緻提案,這份提案也是雙邊公平妥協的結果。在這份法案中,沒有任何一方達成了其全部目的,但我們的國家能從中得到它需要且是必須的改革。

以下是我們移民改革計劃的四個支柱。

第一個支柱是我們為180萬從小被父母帶到美國的非法移民打開慷慨之門。這一政策覆蓋的人數比此前任何一屆政府都要多出三倍。根據我們的計劃,達到了教育和工作要求、且顯示了良好道德特質的人們將能夠成為合法美國公民。

第二個支柱是保衛邊界。這意味著在南部國境線上建設有效的牆,僱傭更多像CJ這樣的人來保證我們社區的安全。更重要的是,我們的計劃能夠消除此前被罪犯和恐怖分子利用來進入美國的法律漏洞。它也將終於能夠終結危險的逮捕—釋放過程。

第三個支柱是結束簽證抽籤制度,它不考慮申請人的技能和綜合素質和美國人民的安全,隨機發放綠卡。是時候開始建設一個基於申請人綜合素質的移民系統了。這個系統應該接受擁有技能且願意工作的申請人、能夠對我們的社會作出貢獻的申請人、熱愛且尊重我們的國家的申請人。

第四個也是最後的一個支柱旨在終結連鎖移民,保護核心家庭。根據現行的移民法,一名移民可以將無限多的遠親帶進美國。在我們的計劃下,我們將只關注直系家屬,減少對其他人的接收:只接收配偶和孩子。這項重要改革不僅對我們的經濟來說很有必要,對我們的安全和美國的未來同樣重要。

In recent weeks, two terrorist attacks in New York were made possible by the visa lottery and chain migration. In the age of terrorism, these programs present risks we can just no longer afford.

It is time to reform these outdated immigration rules and finally bring our immigration system into the 21st century.

These four pillars represent a down-the-middle compromise, and one that will create a safe, modern and lawful immigration system.

For over 30 years, Washington has tried and failed to solve this problem. This Congress can be the one that finally makes it happen.

Most importantly, these four pillars will produce legislation that fulfills my ironclad pledge to sign a bill that puts America first. So let us come together, set politics aside and finally get the job done.

These reforms will also support our response to the terrible crisis of opioid and drug addiction. Never before has it been like it is now. It is terrible. We have to do something about it.

過去的幾周內,兩起紐約襲擊背後的恐怖分子都是通過抽籤和連鎖移民進入美國的。在恐怖主義盛行的時代,這些項目帶來了我們不能承擔的奉獻。是時候對這些過時的移民規定進行改革了,並終於將我們的移民系統帶入21世紀。

這四個支柱呈現了兩黨之間的妥協,將會創造一個安全、現代且合法的移民系統。三十多年以來,華盛頓嘗試應對這個問題,但還是失敗了。而本屆國會終於有機會一勞永逸地解決。最重要的是,根據這四根支柱產生的立法將實現我堅實的承諾,把美國放在第一位。所以讓我們一起努力,擱置政見爭議,完成我們的目標。

這些改革也將支持我們應對類鴉片藥物與毒品帶來的危機。局勢從來沒有像現在這樣嚴重。這太可怕了。我們必須做點什麼。

In 2016, we lost 64,000 Americans to drug overdoses: 174 deaths per day. Seven per hour. We must get much tougher on drug dealers and pushers if we are going to succeed in stopping this scourge.

My administration is committed to fighting the drug epidemic and helping get treatment for those in need. For those who have been so terribly hurt. The struggle will be long and it will be difficult — but, as Americans always do, we will succeed, we will prevail.

As we have seen tonight, the most difficult challenges bring out the best in America.

We see a vivid expression of this truth in the story of the Holets family of New Mexico. Ryan Holets is 27 years old, an officer with the Albuquerque Police Department. He’s here tonight with his wife, Rebecca. Thank you, Ryan. Last year, Ryan was on duty when he saw a pregnant, homeless woman preparing to inject heroin. When Ryan told her she was going to harm her unborn child, she began to weep. She told him she did not know where to turn but badly wanted a safe home for her baby.

In that moment, Ryan said he felt God speak to him: “You will do it — because you can.” He heard those words. He took out a picture of his wife and their four kids. Then, he went home to tell his wife, Rebecca. In an instant, she agreed to adopt. The Holets named their new daughter Hope.

Ryan and Rebecca: You embody the goodness of our nation. Thank you. Thank you Ryan and Rebecca.

在2016年,因為吸毒過量64000名美國人死亡,每天就有174人。每小時就有7人。想要杜絕毒患,我們必須對販毒分子強硬出手。本屆政府致力於打擊毒品傳播,以及幫助有需要的人接受治療。對於那些已經深受毒害的人,鬥爭將是艱苦漫長的。但我們終將勝利,因為我們美國人從來都是這樣。我們終將克服。

正如我們今晚所見,只有在最困難的挑戰中才能發現美國最優秀的品質。新墨西哥州一戶人家的故事就是一個生動範例。Ryan今年27歲,是Albuquerque警局的一名警官。他今晚也在場,和他的妻子Rebecca一起。

謝謝你,Ryan。去年,Ryan執勤時看到一個無家可歸的孕婦正要注射海洛因。理智告訴她,這樣會傷害自己還沒出生的孩子,於是她開始哭泣。她告訴Ryan,她不知道要去哪裡,但為了孩子,她十分想要一個安全的家。那一刻,Ryan說他覺得上帝跟他說了些什麼:「你會去做的,因為你可以。」他聽到這些話,拿出了妻子和孩子的照片。回家後他告訴了妻子Rebecca。Rebecca立刻答應了收留她。他們給這個女嬰取名為「Hope」。Ryan和Rebecca,你們就是我們國家的美好的化身。謝謝你們,同時祝賀你們。

As we rebuild America’s strength and confidence at home, we are also restoring our strength and standing abroad.

Around the world, we face rogue regimes, terrorist groups and rivals like China and Russia that challenge our interests, our economy and our values. In confronting these horrible dangers, we know that weakness is the surest path to conflict, and unmatched power is the surest means to our true and great defense.

For this reason, I am asking the Congress to end the dangerous defense sequester and fully fund our great military.

As part of our defense, we must modernize and rebuild our nuclear arsenal, hopefully never having to use it, but making it so strong and so powerful that it will deter any acts of aggression by any other nation or anyone else. Perhaps someday in the future there will be a magical moment when the countries of the world will get together to eliminate their nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, we are not there yet, sadly.

Last year, I also pledged that we would work with our allies to extinguish ISIS from the face of the Earth. One year later, I am proud to report that the coalition to defeat ISIS has liberated very close to 100% of the territory just recently held by these killers in Iraq and Syria and other locations as well. But there is much more work to be done. We will continue our fight until ISIS is defeated.

當我們在重塑美國內部的力量與信心時,我們也在國外恢復力量。全球範圍內,我們追趕紅色政權、恐怖組織、還有像中國與俄羅斯那樣挑戰我們利益、經濟和價值觀的對手。在與這些可怕危險對抗時,我們知道是軟弱導致了衝突、而無法比擬的力量是捍衛我們自身最保險的方式。因此,我請求國會停止危險地削減開支,全力支持我們的偉大軍隊。

作為我國國防的一部分,我們必須更新、重建我們的核武庫。但願我們永遠也不會真的用上它,但要讓它強大到可以嚇阻一切侵犯。也許在未來的某一天,世界各國共同廢棄各自的核武,但那個時刻太過魔幻。很遺憾,我們現在還沒到那一步。

去年,我也承諾把ISIS從地球上抹去。一年過去,我驕傲地宣布反ISIS聯軍已經解放了幾乎所有ISIS劊子手占領下的地帶,包括伊拉克和敘利亞。但我們還有很多工作要做。我們要持續作戰,直到ISIS被徹底打敗。

Army Staff Sergeant Justin Peck is here tonight. Near Raqqa last November, Justin and his comrade, Chief Petty Officer Kenton Stacy, were on a mission to clear buildings that ISIS had rigged with explosives, so that civilians could return to that city hopefully soon and hopefully safely.

Clearing the second floor of a vital hospital, Kenton Stacy was severely wounded by an explosion. Immediately, Justin bounded into the booby-trapped and unbelievably dangerous and unsafe building and found Kenton in very, very bad shape. He applied pressure to the wound and inserted a tube to reopen an airway. He then performed CPR for 20 straight minutes during the ground transport and maintained artificial respiration through 2½ hours and through emergency surgery.

Kenton Stacy would have died if not for Justin’s selfless love for his fellow warrior. Tonight, Kenton is recovering in Texas. Raqqa is liberated. And Justin is wearing his new Bronze Star, with a “V” for “Valor.” Staff Sergeant Peck: All of America salutes you.

Terrorists who do things like place bombs in civilian hospitals are evil. When possible, we have no choice but to annihilate them. When necessary, we must be able to detain and question them. But we must be clear: Terrorists are not merely criminals. They are unlawful enemy combatants. And when captured overseas, they should be treated like the terrorists they are.

In the past, we have foolishly released hundreds and hundreds of dangerous terrorists, only to meet them again on the battlefield — including the ISIS leader, al-Baghdadi, who we captured, who we had, who we released.

So today, I am keeping another promise. I just signed, prior to walking in, an order directing Secretary Mattis, who is doing a great job, thank you, to reexamine our military detention policy and to keep open the detention facilities in Guantanamo Bay.

今晚我們請來了陸軍上士Justin Peck。去年11月,Justin和他的戰友Kenton Stacy軍士長在拉卡附近執行任務,清理被ISIS放置爆炸物的建築,讓平民能夠返回城市內。

在清理一棟醫院的二樓時,Kenton Stacy被炸成重傷。Justin馬上跳進了詭雷密布、危險不安全的建築裡,發現Kenton的狀況很嚴重。他壓緊Kenton的傷口,用管子充當呼吸道。在運送傷員的時候他一連為Kenton做了20分鐘的人工呼吸,在兩個半小時的時間裡為他人工呼吸,直到Kenton接受應急手術。如果沒有Justin的戰友情誼,Kenton已經死了。今晚,Kenton正在德克薩斯康復。Justin則戴上了銅星勳章和V字獎章。陸軍上士Justin Peck,全美國向你致敬。

在諸如民用醫院這樣的地方放炸彈的恐怖分子是邪惡的。只要有機會,我們就必須消滅他們。只要有必要,我們就必須拘禁審問他們。但我們必須明確。恐怖分子比起罪犯更應該算作無法無天的敵方戰鬥人員。如果他們在海外被俘,他們應當獲得與恐怖分子身份相對的處置。

在過去,我們粗率地釋放了數以百計危險的恐怖分子,讓他們又回到敵營回到戰場,這其中也包括我們俘虜過又放走的ISIS頭目。今天我兌現了又一個諾言。我在進場之前剛剛簽署了一項命令,讓國防部長Mattis重新審核我們的軍事拘留政策,保證我們在Guantanamo灣的監禁設施開放。

I am asking Congress to ensure that, in the fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda, we continue to have all necessary power to detain terrorists — wherever we chase them down, wherever we find them. And in many cases for them it will now be Guantanamo Bay.

And at the same time, as of a few months ago, our warriors in Afghanistan also have new rules of engagement. Along with their heroic Afghan partners, our military is no longer undermined by artificial timelines, and we no longer tell our enemies our plans.

Last month, I also took an action endorsed unanimously by the Senate just months before: I recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Shortly afterwards, dozens of countries voted in the United Nations General Assembly against America’s sovereign right to make this decision. In 2016, American taxpayers generously sent those same countries more than $20 billion in aid every year.

That is why, tonight, I am asking the Congress to pass legislation to help ensure American foreign-assistance dollars always serve American interests, and only go to friends of America, not enemies of America.

As we strengthen friendships around the world, we are also restoring clarity about our adversaries.

When the people of Iran rose up against the crimes of their corrupt dictatorship, I did not stay silent. America stands with the people of Iran in their courageous struggle for freedom.

I am asking Congress to address the fundamental flaws in the terrible Iran nuclear deal.

My administration has also imposed tough sanctions on the communist and socialist dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela.

But no regime has oppressed its own citizens more totally or brutally than the cruel dictatorship in North Korea.

North Korea’s reckless pursuit of nuclear missiles could very soon threaten our homeland.

We are waging a campaign of maximum pressure to prevent that from ever happening.

Past experience has taught us that complacency and concessions only invite aggression and provocation. I will not repeat the mistakes of past administrations that got us into this very dangerous position.

We need only look at the depraved character of the North Korean regime to understand the nature of the nuclear threat it could pose to America and to our allies.

我呼籲國會保證在對ISIS和基地組織的戰鬥中,我們將繼續擁有關押恐怖分子的必要權力。無論我們在哪抓到這些恐怖分子,我們都將關押他們。

我們在阿富汗的戰士有了新的作戰原則。我們的戰士和他們勇敢的阿富汗夥伴並肩作戰,不再受到人工時間線的限制,我們不會讓敵人知曉我們的計劃。

上個月我剛剛採取了行動,並得到了參議院的一直支持。我承認耶路撒冷為以色列的首都。不久以後,數十個國家在聯合國大會上投票反對美國作出這個決定的主權權力。2016年,美國納稅人慷慨地向這些國家提供了超過兩百億美元的援助。這也是為什麼我在今晚呼籲國會,通過立法,確保美國的外國援助將持續符合美國利益,幫助我們的朋友而非敵人。

我們在世界各地鞏固友誼的同時,也開始重新正視我們的對手。當伊朗人民奮起反對腐敗專政時,我們並未沉默。在捍衛自由的勇敢鬥爭中,美國與伊朗人民站在一起。

我要求國會處理伊朗核問題的根本缺陷。我的政府也對古巴和委內瑞拉的共產主義和社會主義獨裁實行了強硬制裁。但當今沒有任何政權會比朝鮮的獨裁統治更加全面地、殘酷地壓迫自己的公民。

朝鮮對核飛彈的魯莽追求很快就會威脅到我們的家園。為了防止這種狀況發生,我們要發起一場運動,施加最大的壓力。過去的經驗告訴我們,自滿和讓步只會帶來侵略和挑釁。我不會重犯過去那些讓我們深陷危險的錯誤。我們只需要看到朝鮮政權道德敗壞的特性,就能夠明白它對美國和我們的盟友造成的核威脅的本質。

Otto Warmbier was a hard-working student at the University of Virginia, and a great student he was. On his way to study abroad in Asia, Otto joined a tour to North Korea. At its conclusion, this wonderful young man was arrested and charged with crimes against the state. After a shameful trial, the dictatorship sentenced Otto to 15 years of hard labor, before returning him to America last June — horribly injured and on the verge of death. He passed away just days after his return.

Otto’s wonderful parents, Fred and Cindy Warmbier, are here with us tonight — along with Otto’s brother and sister, Austin and Greta. Please. Incredible people. You are powerful witnesses to a menace that threatens our world, and your strength truly inspires us all. Thank you very much. Thank you. Tonight, we pledge to honor Otto’s memory with total American resolve. Thank you.

Finally, we are joined by one more witness to the ominous nature of this regime. His name is Mr. Ji Seong-ho.

In 1996, Seong-ho was a starving boy in North Korea. One day, he tried to steal coal from a railroad car to barter for a few scraps of food, which was very hard to get. In the process, he passed out on the train tracks, exhausted from hunger. He woke up as a train ran over his limbs. He then endured multiple amputations without anything to dull the pain or the hurt. His brother and sister gave what little food they had to help him recover and ate dirt themselves — permanently stunting their own growth. Later, he was tortured by North Korean authorities after returning from a brief visit to China. His tormentors wanted to know if he had met any Christians. He had — and he resolved after that to be free.

Seong-ho traveled thousands of miles on crutches all across China and Southeast Asia to freedom. Most of his family followed. His father was caught trying to escape and was tortured to death.

Today he lives in Seoul, where he rescues other defectors, and broadcasts into North Korea what the regime fears the most — the truth.

Today he has a new leg, but Seong-ho, I understand you still keep those old crutches as a reminder of how far you have come. Your great sacrifice is an inspiration to us all. Please. Thank you.

Seong-ho’s story is a testament to the yearning of every human soul to live in freedom.

Otto Warmbier是維吉尼亞大學的一名學生。在他在亞洲留學的期間,Otto參加了去往朝鮮的旅行。在這趟旅行結束之時,這名年輕人被逮捕,並被冠上了政權顛覆的罪名。在一場令人羞恥的審判後,朝鮮獨裁政權判決Otto服刑15年的重度勞役。當他於去年6月返回美國時,他受了重傷且瀕臨死亡,在回國的數天後逝世。

Otto的父母,Fred和Cindy,今晚就在這裡——還有Otto的弟弟妹妹,Austin和Greta。你們有力地見證了一個正在威脅我們世界的鬼影,你們的堅韌鼓舞了我們所有人。今晚,我們誓言把對Otto的哀思化作美國的決心。

最後,另一名受到這個危險政權迫害的受害者也在現場。他的名字是池成鎬(音譯)。

在1996年,成鎬還是一名飢餓的朝鮮男孩。一天,他試圖從火車車廂內偷幾塊煤來換取一些食物。在此過程中,他由於飢餓而昏倒在軌道上。當他醒來時,發現火車已經碾過了他的下肢。在毫無鎮痛的情況下,他經受了多次截肢。他的兄弟姐妹將自己僅有的食物給了他,自己只能吃土——這為他們的成長帶來了永久性的缺陷。後來,在從中國的短途旅行回來後,他被朝鮮政權折磨。施刑者拷問他是否接觸了任何基督徒。答案是肯定的,而且他決心追求自由。

成鎬依靠拐杖在中國和東南亞奔走了數千英里努力獲得自由。他大部分家人也追隨了他的腳步。他的父親在試圖逃離時被逮捕,並被折磨致死。今天他住在首爾,他依然在努力救援其他脫北者,同時向朝鮮境內廣播這個政權最害怕的東西:真相。

今天他有了一條新的腿,但成鎬,我意識到你依然帶著拐杖來提醒自己你已經走了多遠。你的巨大犧牲為我們所有人帶來啟發。成鎬的故事,就是人人嚮往自由生活的印證。

It was that same yearning for freedom that nearly 250 years ago gave birth to a special place called America. It was a small cluster of colonies caught between a great ocean and a vast wilderness. But it was home to an incredible people with a revolutionary idea: that they could rule themselves. That they could chart their own destiny. And that, together, they could light up the entire world.

That is what our country has always been about. That is what Americans have always stood for, always strived for and always done.

Atop the dome of this Capitol stands the Statue of Freedom. She stands tall and dignified among the monuments to our ancestors who fought and lived and died to protect her.

Monuments to Washington and Jefferson — and Lincoln and King.

Memorials to the heroes of Yorktown and Saratoga — to young Americans who shed their blood on the shores of Normandy and the fields beyond. And others, who went down in the waters of the Pacific and the skies all over Asia.

And freedom stands tall over one more monument: this one. This Capitol. This living monument. This is the monument to the American people.

We’re a people whose heroes live not only in the past, but all around us — defending hope, pride, and defending the American way.

正是這種對自由的嚮往,近250年前,催生了美國這個特殊的地方。它原本只是被茫茫大海和廣袤原野圍困的一串殖民地,如今卻變成了一個令人驚羨的民族的家園,其有一個革命性的理念:在這裡,人們自我統治。他們自己規劃自己的命運,齊心協力,照亮了這個世界。那是我們這個國家一直以來的願景。那是我們一貫主張、為之奮鬥、堅定不移的。

在這座國會大廈的圓頂上,佇立著自由女神像。她高大而威嚴的站在那些為她而戰、而生、而死的,我們前輩的紀念碑當中。紀念碑為Washington和Washington而造——為Lincoln和Martin Luther King而造。它紀念Yorktown和Saratoga的英雄們——紀念那些將熱血灑在諾曼第海岸和遠方的田野上的年輕美國人。還有那些沉入太平洋海底,身隕亞洲天空中的人。

自由也高高屹立在另一座紀念碑上:就是這一座。這座國會大廈,這座活著的美國人民的紀念碑。這個民族的英雄不止活在過去,至今也輩出於我們之間——他們捍衛希望、驕傲,以及美國的道路。

They work in every trade. They sacrifice to raise a family. They care for our children at home. They defend our flag abroad. They are strong moms and brave kids. They are firefighters, and police officers, and border agents, medics, and Marines.

But above all else, they are Americans. And this Capitol, this city, and this nation, belong entirely to them.

Our task is to respect them, to listen to them, to serve them, to protect them, and to always be worthy of them.

Americans fill the world with art and music. They push the bounds of science and discovery. And they forever remind us of what we should never ever forget: The people dreamed this country. The people built this country. And it’s the people who are making America great again.

As long as we are proud of who we are, and what we are fighting for, there is nothing we cannot achieve.

As long as we have confidence in our values, faith in our citizens, and trust in our God, we will never fail.

他們從事著各行各業,犧牲小我養育家庭。他們在家照料孩子,在外護衛我們的旗幟。他們是堅強的母親和勇敢的孩子。他們是消防員、警員、邊防局工作人員、醫生和海軍陸戰隊。但更重要的是,他們就是美國人。這幢國會大廈,這座城市,這個國家,都屬於他們。我們的職責是尊重他們、傾聽他們,服務他們,保護他們,並且永不辜負他們。

美國人用藝術和音樂裝點了世界。他們推動著科學發明的邊界。他們永恆提醒著我們永遠不應忘記:人民夢想了這個國家,人民鑄就了這個國家,是人民讓美國再次偉大。

只要我們為自己身為何人、為何而戰感到驕傲,就沒有我們做不到的事情。只要我們對我們的價值觀、信仰和國民充滿信心,並且堅信上帝,我們就不會失敗。

Our families will thrive.Our people will prosper.And our nation will forever be safe and strong and proud and mighty and free.

Thank you, and God bless America. Goodnight.

我們的家庭將蒸蒸日上。我們的人民將繁榮昌盛。我們的國家將永遠安全、強大、驕傲、強力、自由。謝謝,上帝保佑美國。

內容來源
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/01/30/trumps-first-state-of-the-union-address-annotated/?utm_term=.4e91661a6d77
https://read01.com/2GOedJn.html#.WnHo8KiWbIU

2018年台灣升息的機率提高了

台幣近期實在非常強勢,一來是是出口效益帶來台灣經濟成長,貿易順差擴大有利於經常帳增加,同時帶給台股上漲動力,自然會拉動台幣匯率

二來是台灣2018年啟動升息的機率較高,因為2017年的通貨膨脹基期是比較低的,而國際油價和原物料已經明顯上漲,所以2018年的通貨膨脹勢必會往上拉,我估計至少是1.5~2.0%的區間,目前的台幣基礎利率是1.375%,所以升息0.25%還蠻合理的,理論上2018年1月的通貨膨脹是相對低的,2月以後通貨膨脹往上走升,央行升息的機率也會拉高

2018年會有一些新興市場開始升息了,我估計英國和澳洲也會啟動升息的機率高,歐元區樂觀的話,年底升息也很合理

申請使用Interactive broker平台

申請Interactive broker證券平台問卷(美股ETF可以交易)
(目前已經是Interactive broker用戶,也透過此問卷填寫)

https://goo.gl/forms/y4aqUjAqMNWlFNY62

近年來,投資美股和ETF的投資人越來越多了,很多人是使用複委託,但交易成本實在太高,目前全球交易成本長期排名最低的券商,主要就是美國NASDAQ上市券商Interactive broker,這家券商也是我長期使用的券商,整體品質我個人使用非常習慣

不過Interactive broker的開戶有些門檻,25歲以上都是一萬美元,只有25歲以下才是三千美元,而且每個月有帳戶管理費US$10,否則以Interactive broker的交易佣金水平來看,每200股股票或ETF交易佣金約US$1.00~2.00,絕對是全球極低水平

不管是降價後的Firstrade,還是TD Ameritrade,長期交易成本都很難與之抗衡,更不用說Scottrade這種券商了,先前有中國老虎證券Tiger Brokers,以Interactive Brokers為交易渠道,提供投資人可以直接使用Interactive Brokers當作交易平台,不過我想很多投資人對於中國企業的信任感相對較低,所以我也沒有推薦,雖然老虎證券的交易成本其實很理想,而且也不至於損害用戶的權益。

因為Interactive Brokers不只會和他旗下的經紀商合作,所以我持續在找Interactive Brokers的旗下經紀商,而長期都有許多海外券商來找我合作,因緣際會香港Unicorn securities company limited(益群證券有限公司,香港公司註冊編號0453656)剛好來找我合作,然後建立投資資訊交流活動,投資人有興趣可以自行找Unicorn securities開戶,我和Unicorn securities或Interactive Brokers無任何關係,整個架構交易流程都是在Interactive Brokers平台完成,但是用戶由Unicorn securities經紀商進行結算。

Interactive Brokers是Unicorn securities的上游交易平台,起始開戶和後續交易完全可以在Interactive Brokers完成,基本上在Interactive Brokers投資人的保障,和在Unicorn securities一樣,當然,投資人可以不信任不使用,如果Unicorn securities倒了,Link會解除,用戶回到Interactive Brokers繼續運作,不影響權益,基本上只要在Interactive Brokers旗下開戶使用,不管是旗下哪家經紀商,金流、交易、清算都是在Interactive Brokers。

和Unicorn securities對接後的好處是,取消每個月帳戶管理費US$10(Interactive Brokers會先預款,Unicorn securities會給予退回),原本是Interactive Brokers交易帳戶(不限帳戶金額)也可以轉到Unicorn securities,投資人一樣享有在Interactive Brokers交易帳戶的300萬帳戶資金安全保障,美股、ETF、港股、期權、期貨、(外匯保證金仍在等待官方許可)都可以交易,交易佣金目前設定是每股US$0.008+各交易所的印花稅和規費,比在原始Interactive Brokers交易的平均佣金略高一些,不過投資人可以額外獲得我的總體經濟資訊,其實效益更高。

我重申我的立場,我和Unicorn securities或Interactive Brokers無任何關係,就像我過去受邀成為元大、群益、日盛券商的合作講師一般,我的目的還是可以跟投資人宣揚我的總體經濟資訊,而海外券商的業務,投資人自己去處理,我純粹提供我自己使用Interactive Brokers與轉移到Unicorn securities的使用感想,我沒有向任何讀者收取證券開戶相關費用,Interactive broker也沒有開戶獎金。

未來我應該只會和Interactive broker平台的經紀商有講座合作,blog分析文章暫時不確定,透過我的介紹,有在Interactive broker平台交易的使用者,未來看個人交易量的多寡,我也會另外提供私人分析報告。

原本已經是Interactive broker客戶的用戶,也歡迎轉移到Unicorn securities經紀商,交易成本不變或者更低,看個人交易量狀況,一樣可以瀏覽我的分析報告和參與講座,原本是長期學員的投資人,依舊維持瀏覽文章的最大權限。

Interactive broker的交易成本介紹
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1590&p=stocks1

選擇海外券商不能只看帳面上的交易費用
https://goo.gl/ZCpTE1

美國房地產盤整後,後市仍然大有可期

隨著美國2017年底的減稅法案通過,海外企業可能將資金回流美國,而房地產仍然是許多企業和富人的常見投資途徑。因此,受惠於景氣復甦、就業回溫以及新建案供不應求的因素,美國房地產極有可能跟在美國股市之後,成為下一個狂飆的投資標的。

美國房地產價格在2006年達到歷史巔峰以後,龐大的貸款壓力,終究壓垮了房屋持有者的財務狀況,2006年房地產貸款違約案例持續攀升,房價出現大幅修正,五年內修正約三分之一,背著鉅額房貸的房貸者,與其持有「溺水屋(underwater homes)」不如直接破產,這樣損失還比較小,於是銀行呆帳暴增,次級房貸金融海嘯爆發,美國經濟影響力遍及全球,帶領全球陷入經濟大蕭條。

圖1:美國S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller房價指數

資料來源:https://tradingeconomics.com

圖2:美國各類貸款拖欠違約超過90天的案件比例

資料來源:https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

經過十年的時間,美國房價又來到歷史高點的位置了,不一樣的是,美國人目前的財務健康度比2008年以前理想多了,房地產貸款違約的案件比重直直落,信用貸款的違約情況也很輕微,美國民眾的財務健全度其實相當高,2011年美國房價落底以後,連續6年上漲到2017年,但是房屋貸款者的房貸相對於收入比重,僅略上升到13%,仍然維持在1980年以來的相對低點,不過整體房價已經上漲到民眾負擔較大的水平。雖然相對於亞洲城市,美國家庭收入負擔房貸的壓力並不是最高的,但這已經是美國房價相對於家庭收入倍數進入歷史新高的階段。

圖3:美國房屋貸款對房屋持有人收入比重

資料來源:https://am.jpmorgan.com

圖4:美國新屋房價相對家庭收入的倍數

資料來源:https://am.jpmorgan.com

對於沒有買房的美國人來說,租屋壓力一樣非常大,租屋市場空屋率降到1990年代水平,2008年金融海嘯過後,許多美國人不敢買房,雖然近年來美國景氣已經恢復,美國聯準會也進入升息循環,但如同投資市場的群眾心理,房價崩盤時,人們只想削價讓售,然後期待更低的房價出現,等意識到景氣全面復甦時,房價早已走高。許多尚未購屋的民眾,期待房價出現較大修正後再進場,等待的過程仍然需要住宿,全面湧向租屋市場,於是租屋市場需求大增,租金也不斷上升,人民的收入成長跟不上房價成長,只能眼睜睜看著房價越來越高。

圖5:美國租屋市場空屋率

資料來源:FRED

圖6:美國新屋開工情況

資料來源:https://am.jpmorgan.com

雖然美國房價飆升,但這並不是來自於投機泡沫炒作。受惠於大量移民湧入,美國近年來人口仍然維持成長,住宅需求也穩定增加,另一方面,次級房貸重傷美國建築業,造成就業人口大量流失,超過200萬人被迫離開建築業,建商們也變得相當保守,投資意願大減,雇員也比2006年以前減少許多,新屋開工量一度減少超過75%,直到2011年房地產落底以後,建商們才又逐漸增加新屋開工量。不過建築工人回鍋則是需要數年的時間,即使到了2017年底,美國建築工人仍然距離2006年高峰期約80萬人的差距,建築業的缺工仍然吃緊,這也限制了美國建商的新建案產能,需求成長速度比供給成長速度快,按照供需原則,美國房價自然是年年穩定成長了。

圖7:美國建築業就業人口

資料來源:FRED

在美國各大城市中,住宅壓力最大的當屬紐約市,其次則是洛杉磯。為了幫助社會底層的民眾,紐約市在2017年提供2.5萬套平價住宅,給年收入低於3.34萬美元的單身市民或低於4.3萬美元的三口之家。2014年以來,紐約市已經資助約8.7萬件平價住宅給低收入的市民,直接投資超過33億美元,因為高房價已經給當地居民造成極大的生活壓力,紐約州、紐澤西州都是美國民眾2017年遷出率較高的州,共同特色都是高房價。

高房價也改變了美國人以往的搬遷習性,根據美國房地產經紀人協會(NAR)的資料,2017年美國家庭長期居住在同一間房子的週期中,時間中位數是十年,這是30多年來最久的時間。房價一直漲,房屋庫存數量低,美國家庭寧可選擇裝修老舊房子,也不願頻繁搬家,而且搬家後還要重新安置就業,美國家庭在房屋修繕的投資金額持續攀升,甚至不斷破紀錄,美國近年來釋出的房源實在相對有限,大部分的家庭擔心,一但把房子賣掉後,恐怕無法用更低的價格買回來,結果美國家庭流動率降到30多年來最低水平,人們為了改善住房條件而搬家的意願大不如1980年代。

儘管如此,美國高房價的趨勢短期內仍然不會有改善。根據美國人口調查局的資料,家庭收入高於中位數者有78.4%擁有房地產,家庭收入低於中位數者只有49.5%擁有房地產,擁有房子的屋主,本身通常是收入較高的族群。可以預期,未來數年裡,美國房地產的需求恐怕有增無減,房價欲跌不易。
http://www.naipo.com/Portals/1/web_tw/Knowledge_Center/Editorial/IPNC_180124_1502.htm

20180128美元趨勢短評

國際金融商品局勢分析,分享一些投資心得,資料僅供參考,信者恆信

重要訊息提醒
2018年聯準會利率會議日期January30-31、March20-21*、May1-2、June12-13*、Jul31~Aug1、September25-26*、November7-8、December18-19*

美元從FED在12月份升息後,很明顯地走弱了,美元指數周線圖以波浪分析來製圖,2008年以來的反彈大行情結束的機率其實相當高,2018年的美元發展,很可能會是全年維持相對弱勢,因為許多非美元貨幣可能會進入近年來的初次升息,來應對原油和原物料上漲所帶來的通貨膨脹,初次升息對市場的影響力大,非美元貨幣很高機率會呈現升值發展

許多投資人會考量另一個因素,那就是美國減稅,因為美國企業長年在海外停泊的現金非常龐大,2016年度美國企業停泊在海外的未匯回獲利高達2.4兆美元(約新台幣75兆元);Goldman Sachs估算,2017年所有美國企業海外總資產將超過3兆美元。

精明的美國企業在減稅法案通過後,包含Apple、Microsoft、Cisco、Google、Oracle、Johnson and Johnson、P&G、Qualcomm等國際著名企業,只要把利潤匯回美國,可以降低一次性的利潤匯回稅,所以Apple在利潤的驅趕之下,就會逐漸把長期停泊境外的資產匯回美國,企業們會更有意願發放股利,美元的需求也會提升,從這因素來看,美元是要上漲的。

 數據來源/彭博

不過美國政府是很精明的,他自然不會讓自家企業面對較差的匯兌價格,舉個例子,美國企業停泊在台灣的現金,以台幣存放,2018年要開始匯回美國了,這時候台幣要換美元,美國政府是讓USD/TWD維持在33,還是讓USD/TWD維持在29,哪個換匯價格對美國企業有利,答案其實相當明顯,只要讓美元維持弱勢,企業海外現金此時將大量非美元貨幣,兌換成美元,再匯回美國,這是多大的匯兌收益阿,美國政府只需要爭取弱勢美元的時間,讓企業們締結遠期外匯合約或其他鎖住匯率的金融工具,這樣就足夠,美國財政部長Steven Mnuchin所說的,美元轉弱對美國有利,其實意思就在這裡,等到美國企業完成匯兌避險,美元就不需要再維持弱勢了,所以他說美元短期價值並不需要擔憂。

美國總統Trump在空軍一號上對記者說,美國股市這麼成功就是因為他,他對資金和就業非常在行,他覺得他做得很不錯,比民眾理解的好多了,從結果來看,不管開頭和中間過程如何,他大多得到了他預設的目標,在美國境內的法案成功率較低,但是在外交博弈上,我認為他是成功的,他的手段可能讓大眾意外,但他還是得到他想要的結果,所以讀者不用擔心他毀了美國,他仍然讓美國走在有利的道路上。

讀者應該不難發現,2011~2016年,我對美國股市的態度是很樂觀的,基本上就是我建議的投資布局主力,2017年則是對於台灣股市和德國股市也增加了建議布局的頻率,過去沒有提及到的澳幣,2017年也明顯增加論述,我立場的轉換不難意識到,我對於台幣和歐元與澳幣已經轉為樂觀了,我也沒有對於美股感到悲觀,只是基期墊高了,投資效率下降了,投資人要思考,資金就一份,怎麼分配才在整個賽局上有利,2017年底,我在幾場公開講座有提到,像是包含德國股市和歐元的EWG,會是較適合的布局標的,因為不管歐元的升貶,EWG很高機率都會是升值的,我對於長期課程的讀者,甚至更早就提到這點,好的布局策略是,繞過你不確定的路線,找出你確定的元素,然後眺望整個大局來佈局,就算我判斷錯美元的趨勢,那也不影響整個投資獲利,因為就算歐元貶值了,EWG長線擺著,德國出口受惠,還是會讓DAX大漲,EWG還是會上漲,如同賭場的莊家,莊家不管誰是贏家或輸家,反正透過機率運算,讓輸家虧的總額,大於贏家賺的總額就好,剩下的歸自己,這樣的Gamble對自己有利,那就要做。

2018年是樂觀的一年,因為FED升息還沒到頂,到年底,美元利率很可能還不夠高,2019年還可以繼續升息,這到時候我會再判斷,我要看美國通貨膨脹會發展到怎樣的數據,投資就是走一步算一步,臨場應變,就算局勢不如自己預期的,那也無妨,找時間對自己有利的賽局,那就勝算很高了,我假設2018上半年的多頭趨勢還維持,那麼原本的股市多頭部位就不用擔心,不用提高比重,維持原有部位就可以

至於外匯部位,因為台幣走強,所以外幣勢必面對大量匯損,但這也不用擔心,因為台幣很難持續強勢下去,但不確定時間點,所以美元部位拿來佈局外匯ETF,長期抗戰,例如我把美元部位拿來買進FXA,這我先前提過了,不是現在才提到,澳幣長線的爆發力不會輸給台幣的,我只要確保我的FXA能賺到更多美元,那麼外匯部位並不會吃虧,以後再做轉換就好,雖然此時台幣強度比我預期的還強許多,美元部位會有匯損,但我們可以繞過台幣,想辦法讓布局可以賺到更多美元就好,美元長線還會再轉強的,不用擔心一直對台幣弱勢下去

因為美國企業一旦完成資金回流美國,以美元存在,那美元就沒有弱勢的必要了,而且全球股市也不會一直維持火熱,慢一點3~8季的時間,我認為大修正還是會來,到時美元會有跌深反彈,可以讓投資人趁機做轉換的,詳細時間點不知道,反正徵兆出現了再來應對,眼下還不急

http://www.facebook.com/joejoeyourmoney這是Joe的粉絲團,持續有更多資源分享在粉絲團喔
這是Joe的著作,讀者有興趣可以看看書的介紹,相信對於投資和總體經濟會很有幫助
這是關於外幣投資的工具書,看賺線圖輕鬆賺外匯 http://tinyurl.com/o89j2yb
這是關於外匯保證金的工具書,看賺線圖高效率賺外匯 http://tinyurl.com/o89j2yb
這是關於總體經濟的工具書,自主投資之鑰http://tinyurl.com/o76pbdk