{"id":8139,"date":"2016-02-16T14:47:44","date_gmt":"2016-02-16T06:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/?p=8139"},"modified":"2016-02-16T14:47:44","modified_gmt":"2016-02-16T06:47:44","slug":"%e8%b2%a8%e5%b9%a3%e7%b3%bb%e7%b5%b1%e6%b5%81%e5%8b%95%e6%80%a7%e5%9c%a83%e6%9c%88%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%8c%e6%9c%83%e9%80%90%e6%bc%b8%e6%81%a2%e5%be%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/2016\/02\/16\/%e8%b2%a8%e5%b9%a3%e7%b3%bb%e7%b5%b1%e6%b5%81%e5%8b%95%e6%80%a7%e5%9c%a83%e6%9c%88%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%8c%e6%9c%83%e9%80%90%e6%bc%b8%e6%81%a2%e5%be%a9\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8ca8\u5e63\u7cfb\u7d71\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u57283\u6708\u4ee5\u5f8c\u6703\u9010\u6f38\u6062\u5fa9"},"content":{"rendered":"

Joe\uff1a\u300c\u9ad8\u76db\u9019\u7bc7\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u9084\u4e0d\u932f\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u986f\u8457\u627f\u58d3\u4f7f\u5f97\u9ad8\u76db2015\u5e74\u5e95\u5f37\u529b\u63a8\u85a6\u7684\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u5c0d\u6b50\u5143\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u88e1\u4ea4\u6613\u96c6\u9ad4\u505c\u640d\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u8af8\u591a\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u91cd\u7533\u5805\u5b9a\u770b\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u7a31\u7f8e\u570b\u6f5b\u5728\u6210\u9577\u52d5\u80fd\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u800c\u6b50\u6d32\u65e5\u672c\u5c07\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u5927\u908f\u8f2f\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u6216\u4e5f\u904e\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

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1.\u8cc7\u7522\u5b9a\u50f9\u5927\u5927\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7a7a\u56e0\u7d20\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u88ab\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6de8\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u9047\u632b\uff0c\u4f46\u7d93\u6fdf\u97cc\u6027\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u9084\u662f\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u52d5\u80fd\uff0c\u90fd\u6bd4\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u8981\u4f86\u7684\u6709\u529b\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7121\u8996\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7dca\u7e2e\u3002<\/p>\n

2.\u6b50\u6d32\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u4e26\u5c07\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5bec\u9b06\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5931\u671b\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u5fc3\u6b50\u6d32\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u7121\u6cd5\u5be6\u73fe\u627f\u8afe\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u9019\u8b93\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u91cd\u65b0\u8861\u91cf\u624b\u4e2d\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5169\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u9084\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8abf\u4e862016\u5e74\u7684\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u767c\u4e86\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5011\u5c0d\u5169\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u6de1\u5316\u901a\u81a8\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7684\u78ba\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u9ad8\u76db\u7684\u9810\u8a08\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u8abf\u548c\u6307\u6578(HICP)\u6578\u64da\u5c07\u50c5\u67091%\uff0c\u6bd4\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c1.3%\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u5c8c\u5c8c\u53ef\u5371\uff0c\u4f46\u9ad8\u76db\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c1\u6708\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u986f\u793a\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u76ee\u6a19\u8ffd\u6c42\u610f\u9858\u4f9d\u820a\u5f37\u70c8\uff0c\u5c0d\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5bec\u9b06\u8209\u52d5\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u662f\u5c0d\u4e0a\u8ff0\u731c\u6e2c\u7684\u56de\u64ca\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u4f9d\u820a\u9810\u671f12\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u65e5\u5143\u76ee\u6a19130\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u76ee\u6a190.95\u3002<\/p>\n

3.\u7f8e\u6b50\u4e2d\u7b493\u5730\u5340\u7684\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u65bc\u6d6e\u52d5\u532f\u7387\u7684\u6050\u61fc\u662f\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u4e86\u50f9\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6d6e\u52d5\u532f\u7387\u5e36\u4f86\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u610f\u9593\u6703\u8b93\u878d\u8cc7\u74b0\u5883\u8b8a\u5f97\u7e2e\u7dca\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\uff09\u3002\u4f8b\u59822015\u5e749\u6708FOMC\u6703\u8b70\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u9661\u7136\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u53c8\u4f8b\u598212\u6708\u6b50\u592e\u884c\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u6fc0\u8d77\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5169\u6b21\u4f8b\u5b50\u88e1\uff0c\u5c0d\u61c9\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u90fd\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u64d4\u6182\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u5883\u8b8a\u5f97\u7dca\u7e2e\u3001\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u532f\u7387\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u9069\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u9810\u8a08\u4e09\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u592e\u884c\u6703\u9010\u6f38\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u56e0\u5169\u5bb3\u53d6\u5176\u8f15\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u3002<\/p>\n

4.\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u4f4e\u901a\u81a8\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u6703\u66f4\u4e45\u3002\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u548c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u901a\u81a8\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\u7684\u9670\u5f71\u3002\u4f46\u5225\u5fd8\u4e86\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u5916\u570d\u570b\u5bb6\u9084\u5728\u9032\u884c\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u7269\u50f9\u548c\u5de5\u8cc7\u6c34\u5e73\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u901a\u7e2e\u7684\u50be\u5411\uff0c\u8207\u591a\u6578\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u5728\u80cc\u96e2\u3002<\/p>\n

5.\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u662fQE\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u591a\u6578\u6e90\u81ea\u65bc\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9577\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u9810\u8a08\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u5c07\u91cd\u65b0\u56de\u5230QE\u4e0a\u3002\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u96bb\u662f\u70ba\u5f37\u5316\u73fe\u6709\u7684QQE\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662fQQE\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u7d93\u4f7f\u5f97\u65e5\u672c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5927\u964d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u6700\u8fd1\u63a8\u9ad8\u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u570b\u50b5\u4e0a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u5c07\u901a\u904e\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u5e73\u8861\u6700\u7d42\u6253\u58d3\u65e5\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

6.\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u662f\u300c\u7d42\u6975QE\u6b66\u58eb\u300d\uff0cQE\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u904e\u523a\u6fc0\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u7531\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u62c9\u52d5\u6210\u9577\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u7684QQE\u4e00\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u58d3\u4f4e\u570b\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0c\u62c9\u5e73\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u8b93\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u4f8b\u59822014\u5e74\u590f\u5929\uff0c\u7f8e\/\u65e5\u5f9e102\u6f32\u5230109\uff0c2015\u5e745\u6708\u6642\uff0c\u5f9e120\u6f32\u5230125\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u65e5\u672c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u96bb\u662f\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u592e\u884c\u9084\u662f\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u64f4\u5927QE\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u5c07\u91cd\u65b0\u56de\u5230\u4e0b\u8dcc\u908f\u8f2f\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

7.\u7f8e\u5143\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u300crisk-on\u300d\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c6c\u6027\u5f9e\u6b63\u5230\u53cd\uff0c\u8b8a\u63db\u4e86\u597d\u5e7e\u6b21\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u8b8a\u63db\u66f4\u591a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u7570\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u5929\u5802\u300d\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ca0\u6210\u9577\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u771f\u5be6\u6216\u53ea\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u731c\u6e2c\u7684\uff0c\u90fd\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u5f9e\u5b9a\u50f9\u4e2d\uff0c\u5228\u9664\u4e00\u4e9b\u7f8e\u570b\u7e2e\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5229\u5dee\u9810\u671f\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u800c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8d70\u5f37\u9019\u4e00\u5927\u908f\u8f2f\u80cc\u5f8c\uff0c\u9ad4\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u95dc\u806f\u3002<\/p>\n

8.\u4f4e\u6cb9\u50f9\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u77ed\u671f\u6709\u8ca0\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u58d3\u5236\u5229\u5dee\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u5229\u7a7a\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u6cb9\u6de8\u9032\u53e3\u570b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u65e6\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7a7a\u51fa\u6e05\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u4f4e\u6cb9\u50f9\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u8aaa\u5f9e\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u500b\u5229\u597d\uff0c\u8209\u4f8b\u8aaa\u660e\u5c31\u662f2004~08\u5e74\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u8d85\u7d1a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u58d3\u5236\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u5dee\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u8def\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

9.\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u570b\u969b\u6536\u652f\u4ecd\u5728\u638c\u63a7\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u53cd\u61c9\u4e86\u8cc7\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u7684\u56b4\u91cd\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc2015\u5e748\u6708\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u6a5f\u88fd\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5927\u91cf\u57fa\u65bc\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u4e0d\u6703\u8cb6\u503c\u9810\u671f\u4e4b\u4e0b\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u91cf\u5916\u6d41\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u5e38\u5e33\u6236\u4eca\u5e74\u9806\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u67094000\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u80fd\u529b\u8db3\u4ee5\u5438\u6536\u76f8\u7576\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u4e0d\u81f3\u65bc\u4f7f\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u898f\u6a21\u4e0b\u964d\u592a\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

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