{"id":7578,"date":"2015-09-05T23:29:08","date_gmt":"2015-09-05T15:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/?p=7578"},"modified":"2015-09-05T23:29:08","modified_gmt":"2015-09-05T15:29:08","slug":"%e8%b2%a8%e5%b9%a3%e6%88%b0%e7%88%ad%e9%99%b0%e8%ac%80%e8%ab%96%ef%bc%9f%e5%88%a5%e9%ac%a7%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/2015\/09\/05\/%e8%b2%a8%e5%b9%a3%e6%88%b0%e7%88%ad%e9%99%b0%e8%ac%80%e8%ab%96%ef%bc%9f%e5%88%a5%e9%ac%a7%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8ca8\u5e63\u6230\u722d\u9670\u8b00\u8ad6\uff1f\u5225\u9b27\u4e86\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2007\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7c4d\u4f5c\u5bb6\u5b8b\u9d3b\u5175\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u8ca8\u5e63\u6230\u722d\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\uff0c\u5728\u83ef\u4eba\u51fa\u7248\u5e02\u5834\u6210\u70ba\u8ca1\u7d93\u985e\u6700\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u4e3b\u8ef8\u662f\u7f85\u65af\u67f4\u723e\u5fb7\uff08Rothschild\uff09\u5bb6 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\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u800c\u4e0d\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8ca8\u5e63\u5927\u6230\u958b\u6253\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u963b\u6b62\u7f8e\u570b\u767c\u52d5\u8ca8\u5e63\u6230\u2026\u2026\uff0c\u5404\u7a2e\u8073\u52d5\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u6eff\u5929\u98db\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"Publication_h1p4em\"><strong>\u91cd\u91cd\u95dc\u5361\u3000\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7368\u7acb\u516c\u6b63 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f9e\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08FED\uff09\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u7f8e\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u975e\u5e38\u900f\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b \u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a5f\u69cb\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u4efb\u547d\u76847\u4f4d\u7406\u4e8b\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6709\u4efb\u671f\u5236\u4fdd\u969c\u7684\u7406\u4e8b\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u9075\u5b88\u5229\u76ca\u8ff4\u907f\u689d\u6b3e\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u79c1\u4eba\u9280\u884c \u5b58\u5728\u5229\u76ca\u885d\u7a81\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u8981\u901a\u904e\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u5be9\u67e5\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7dad\u8b77\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c08\u696d\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u7368\u7acb\u5224\u65b7\u3002\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8ca8 \u5e63\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u5b98\u65b9\u91cb\u51fa\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u96e3\u638c\u63e1\uff0c\u4f8b\u59822015\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u773e\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u900f\u904e\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u904b\u7528\u908f\u8f2f\u5206 \u6790\uff0c\u4f30\u7b97\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53ef\u80fd\u57f7\u884c\u5347\u606f\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9ede\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u516c\u958b\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u884c\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4eba\u58eb\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u67902015\u5e749\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u621612\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6703\u5347\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6709\u591a\u9ad8\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e \u5143\u662f\u5426\u8981\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u81f3\u5c1110\u4f4d\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5c08\u696d\u7684\u5b98\u54e1\u540c\u6642\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6703\u8b70\u8a18\u9304\u90fd\u6703\u516c\u958b\uff0c\u6c7a\u7b56\u76f8\u7576\u900f\u660e\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u6709\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u9670\u8b00\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57161\uff1a1997\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u8d70\u52e2<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a02.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"578\" height=\"454\" \/><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u8ca1\u7d93\u76f8\u95dc\u6a5f\u69cb\u96a8\u6642\u90fd\u5728\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee52015\u5e74\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u90fd\u5728\u76fc\u671b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4f55\u6642\u5ba3\u5e03\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5347\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5982\u4f55 \u63a8\u51fa\u8f14\u52a9\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5f9e2013\u5e74\u52302015\u5e74\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u8a18\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u904e\u65bc\u60b2\u89c0\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u63d0\u524d\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u5230 830\u842c\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0cGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u4e5f\u6301\u7e8c\u597d\u8f49\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c5\u5b63\u8d85\u904e2.3%\u7684GDP\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u50c5\u5269\u4e0b\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u9084\u672a\u6062\u5fa9\u52302%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u6e96\uff1b\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u57fa\u671f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8 \u8139\u7387\u57282015\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5c31\u6703\u9010\u6f38\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u9069\u5408\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u606f\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e5f\u7d42\u65bc\u627f\u8a8d\u5bec\u9b06\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e00\u6210\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57162\uff1a2013Q1\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570bGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff08\u6bcf\u5b63\uff09<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a04.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"573\" height=\"283\" \/><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tradingeconomics.com\" target=\"_top\"><strong>www.tradingeconomics.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57163\uff1a2006\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\uff08\u6bcf\u6708\uff09<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a06.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"572\" height=\"284\" border=\"0\" \/><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tradingeconomics.com\" target=\"_top\"><strong>www.tradingeconomics.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57164\uff1a2014\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\uff08\u6bcf\u5b63\uff09<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a08.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"571\" height=\"273\" border=\"0\" \/><br \/>\n<strong>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tradingeconomics.com\" target=\"_top\"><strong>www.tradingeconomics.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5224\u65b7\u7f8e\u5143\u662f\u5426\u61c9\u8a72\u5347\u606f\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6b0a\u5728\u65bc\u6574\u500b\u7f8e\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u8d70\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5f8c\u982d\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u65e9 \u5df2\u6c7a\u5b9a\u597d\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53ea\u662f\u628a\u9019\u500b\u5229\u7387\u8a02\u51fa\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u6578\u503c\u3002\u5229\u7387\u662f\u6574\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e00\u500b\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9069\u7576\u6c34\u5e73\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5fc5\u9808\u5224\u65b7\u5404\u65b9 \u4eba\u99ac\u5c0d\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u73fe\u5728\u7406\u60f3\u5229\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u662f5%\uff0c\u800c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8a2d\u5b9a\u57284%\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5e02\u5834\u52e2\u5fc5\u64f4\u5927\u878d\u8cc7\u501f\u6b3e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8a2d\u5b9a\u57286%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810 \u671f\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5e02\u5834\u6e38\u96e2\u8cc7\u91d1\u5c31\u6703\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u666f\u6c23\u5c31\u6703\u51b7\u537b\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"Publication_h1p4em\"><strong>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53ea\u80fd\u8ddf\u96a8\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u6539\u8b8a\u8da8\u52e2 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7121\u6cd5\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8a02\u51fa\u50f9\u683c\u4ee5\u5f8c\u9396\u4f4f\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u5236\u5b9a\u7b26\u5408\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63 \u653f\u7b56\uff08Monetary Policy\uff09\u3002\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\uff08market rate\uff09\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u5404\u65b9\u52e2\u529b\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e0d\u540c\u671f\u9593\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4ea4\u6613\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u773e\u591a\u800c\u4e14\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55 \u4e00\u65b9\u80fd\u64cd\u7e31\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u8b8a\u5f97\u6975\u70ba\u5ba2\u89c0\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u5fe0\u5be6\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4f9b\u9700\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u89c0\u5bdf\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b64\u4e00\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u518d\u516c\u958b\u4e00\u822c\u9280\u884c\u9ad4\u7cfb\u8207 \u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5f80\u4f86\u6642\u9069\u7528\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff09\u3002\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u662f\u7531\u6240\u6709\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u5171\u540c\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5206\u6563\u5f0f\u6c7a\u7b56\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7f8e\u5143\u5230\u5e95\u4f55\u6642\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u662f\u5236\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b \u5e2d\u8449\u502b\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u7368\u88c1\u6b0a\uff0c\u5f97\u753110\u4f4d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6210\u54e1\u6295\u7968\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u7968\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e0d\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u7f8e\u5143\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u773e\u8ffd\u9010\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u62cb \u68c4\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5347\u606f\u5c31\u50cf\u79cb\u5929\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u5b78\u6821\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5168\u9ad4\u5e2b\u751f\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u63db\u51ac\u5b63\u670d\u88dd\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u985e\u6bd4\u52d5\u4f5c\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u5929\u6c23\u8f49\u6dbc\u4e86\uff0c\u8a72\u63db\u9577\u8896\u4e86\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u537b\u89ba\u5f97\u5929\u6c23\u9084 \u4e0d\u5920\u6dbc\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u665a\u9ede\u63db\uff1b\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u55ae\u4e00\u500b\u9ad4\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u8b8a\u5929\u6c23\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u63db\u9577\u8896\uff0c\u800c\u628a\u5929\u6c23\u6539\u70ba\u51ac\u5929\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u7576\u5929\u6c23\u771f\u7684\u8b8a\u6dbc\u4e86\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b78\u6821\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u9054\u7a7f\u4e0a\u9577\u8896 \u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u5e2b\u751f\u4f9d\u7136\u6703\u4e3b\u52d5\u6539\u7a7f\u9577\u8896\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u5df2\u7d93\u860a\u85cf\u7206\u767c\u529b\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4f4e\u6a94\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53c8\u4e0d\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9006\u52e2\u800c\u70ba\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u52e2\u5fc5\u9032\u5165\u9ad8\u5ea6\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u60e1 \u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5931\u696d\u7387\u3001\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u3001GDP\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6295\u7968\u50be\u5411\u5347\u606f\u7684\u5b98\u54e1\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u5728\u81ea \u7531\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u71b1\u9322\u9810\u671f\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u71b1\u9322\u81ea\u7136\u6703\u64a4\u96e2\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8ca1\u52d9\u9ad4\u8cea\u8f03\u5dee\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8cc7\u91d1\u79fb\u5f80\u7f8e\u570b\u505c\u6cca\u5957\u5229\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63 \u5c31\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u8cb6\u503c\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5f9e2011\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8cb6\u503c\u5e45\u5ea6\u5927\u5c0f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u9762\u90fd\u5728\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u5230\u4e862015\u5e74\uff0c\u9ad4\u8cea\u8f03\u5dee\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u5df2\u7d93 \u8cb6\u503c\u5230\u6bd42008\u5e74\u4f4e\u9ede\u9084\u4f4e\u4e86\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u81f3\u5c1112\u500b\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u7bc4\u570d\u5305\u542b\u4e2d\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u6b50\u6d32\u3001\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\uff0c\u4e00\u5806\u8ca8\u5e63\u90fd\u5448\u73fe\u76f8\u7576\u5927\u7684\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u50f9\u683c \u5f9e\u8fd1\u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\u66b4\u8dcc80%\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u3001\u5357\u975e\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u7b49\u570b\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u624d\u5df2\u7d93\u9032\u5834\u5e72\u9810\u532f\u5e02\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u8ddf1994~1999\u5e74\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u4e00\u5806\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\u5927\u8cb6\u503c\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u80cc\u666f\u76f8\u7576\u985e\u4f3c\u3002\u65e9\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5ba3\u5e03\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u524d\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u50b3\u805e\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u9670\u8b00\u8ad6\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u5c0f\u8aaa\u60c5\u7bc0\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u591a\u7fa4\u773e\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u8aa4\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57165\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u8981\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u570b\u5bb6\u8fd1\u5e74\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u52e2<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a10.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"524\" height=\"940\" border=\"0\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong> <strong>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u8ca8\u5e63\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8d70\u52e2\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u884c\u57282005\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c\u523b\u610f\u8b93\u7f8e\u5143\u5c0d\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u639b\u52fe\uff0c2008\u301c2010\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u98a8 \u66b4\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u884c\u53c8\u64f4\u5927\u5c0d\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u63a7\u7ba1\u3002\u76f4\u52302015\u5e748\u670813\u865f\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u9280\u884c\u5c0d\u5916\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u504f\u5dee\u77ef\u6b63\u76ee\u524d\u57fa\u672c\u5df2\u7d93\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6301\u7e8c\u8cb6\u503c\u7684\u57fa \u790e\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u9084\u6703\u9032\u5165\u5347\u503c\u901a\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e4d\u770b\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8ac7\u8a71\u53ea\u986f\u793a\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u884c\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u5e72\u9810\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u504f\u5dee\u77ef\u6b63\u61c9\u8a72\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5b8c\u5168\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\u771f\u7684\u6709\u8ca8\u5e63\u6230\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e72\u9810\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u986f\u7136\u662f\u767c\u52d5\u8ca8\u5e63\u6230\u7684\u4e3b\u8b00\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57166\uff1a2001\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff08\u7dda\u578b\u5f80\u4e0b\u70ba\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u5347\u503c\uff09<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a12.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"603\" height=\"505\" border=\"0\" \/><br \/>\n<strong>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"Publication_h1p4em\"><strong>\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u63a8\u5347\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u8207\u9670\u8b00\u8ad6\u7121\u95dc <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5f9e\u5be6\u52d9\u9762\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5f15\u5c0e\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u52d5\u4f5c\u30022014\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u539f\u7269\u6599\u7b49\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u6210\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\u7684 \u8da8\u52e2\u4e0b\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u5982\u4ee5\u5f80\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u904e\u5269\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u666e\u904d\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u5df2\u7d93\u660e\u986f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u6709\u76ca\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9032\u53e3\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc \u4e2d\u570b\u5167\u9700\u6d88\u8cbb\u5e02\u5834\u8f03\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u4e5f\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u51fa\u53e3\u696d\u6709\u5229\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u80fd\u628a\u8ca8\u7269\u8ce3\u5230\u570b\u5916\uff0c\u4ee5\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u8a08\u50f9\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u6548\u76ca\u6703\u660e\u986f\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57167\uff1a2010\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u4e2d\u570b\u751f\u7522\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a14.jpg\" alt=\"201001~201507\u4e2d\u570b\u751f\u7522\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\" width=\"597\" height=\"287\" border=\"0\" \/><br \/>\n\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.tradingeconomics.com\" target=\"_top\">www.tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u570b\u592e\u884c\u57282015\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u62c9\u62ac\u4e2d\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u52d5\u7528\u50cf\u662f\u8abf\u964d\u5229\u7387\u6216\u8abf\u964d\u5b58\u6b3e\u6e96\u5099\u7387\u7b49\u8ca8\u5e63\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5bec\u9b06\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u52d5\u4f5c\u90fd 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class=\"style1bold\"><strong>\u57168\uff1a2010\u30012013\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u5206\u6790<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic0140-016-a16.jpg\" alt=\"pic0118-016-a04\" width=\"604\" height=\"740\" border=\"0\" \/><br \/>\n\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bis.org\" target=\"_top\">www.bis.org<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u662f\u66ff\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u767c\u52d5\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u884c\u5247\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u4e5f\u90fd\u662f\u5404\u570b\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u7d44\u7e54\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u592e\u884c\u505a\u4efb\u4f55\u8ca8\u5e63 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