{"id":11157,"date":"2019-04-12T22:53:19","date_gmt":"2019-04-12T14:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/?p=11157"},"modified":"2019-04-12T22:53:22","modified_gmt":"2019-04-12T14:53:22","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%ef%bc%9a%e6%88%90%e9%95%b7%e8%b6%a8%e7%b7%a9%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e5%b0%9a%e6%9c%aa%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/2019\/04\/12\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%ef%bc%9a%e6%88%90%e9%95%b7%e8%b6%a8%e7%b7%a9%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e5%b0%9a%e6%9c%aa%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\uff1a\u6210\u9577\u8da8\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u8870\u9000"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u5927\u578b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u57282018\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u9032\u5165\u666f\u6c23\u4fee\u6b63\u671f\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u660e\u986f\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u6c11\u9593\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u4e5f\u5728\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e022018\u5e74\u5e95\u5927\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c2019\u5e74\u521d\u53c8\u9047\u5230\u653f\u5e9c\u95dc\u9580\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u76f8\u5c0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u666f\u6c23\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\u4e86\uff0c\u638c\u7ba1\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08FED\uff09\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u62ff\u634f\uff0c\u5f9e2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u9df9\u6d3e\uff0c\u534a\u5e74\u5167\u8f49\u8b8a\u70ba\u76f8\u5c0d\u9d3f\u6d3e\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c52019\u5e74\u9810\u671f\u5347\u606f\u6b21\u6578\u964d\u70ba\u96f6\uff0c\u751a\u81f32019\u5e74\u5167\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\uff08Balance sheet\uff09\u90fd\u66ab\u505c\u7e2e\u6e1b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\n\nFED\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8449\u502b\uff08Janet Yellen\uff09\u516c\u958b\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u659c\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u5e73\u7de9\uff0c\u8ddf\u904e\u53bb\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u5012\u639b\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c07\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0cFed\u6216\u8a31\u5f97\u5728\u67d0\u500b\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u8003\u616e\u964d\u606f\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u78ba\u5728\u8da8\u7de9\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u65bc\u5979\u7684\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u8f49\u70ba\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\u3002\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_01.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57161\uff1a2014\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u8b8a\u5316<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_02.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57162\uff1a2014\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff08\u55ae\u4f4d\uff1a%\uff09<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u666f\u6c23\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u9084\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u4e00\u9663\u5b50<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c92\u932f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u5fa9\u7526\uff0c\u78ba\u5be6\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\u5e74\uff0c\u756b\u4e0b\u4f11\u6b62\u7b26\uff0c\u4f46\u662f2019\u5e74\u9084\u662f\u6709\u5598\u606f\u7a7a\u9593\u7684\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u666f\u6c23\u4e0d\u6703\u90a3\u9ebc\u5feb\u5c31\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\uff0c\u4e00\u4f86\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6c11\u9593\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\uff0c\u6703\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7684\u9084\u66f4\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4e8c\u4f86\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u57282019\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u6703\u9032\u5165\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u666f\u6c23\u64f4\u5f35\u6642\u9593\u7684\u5ef6\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_03.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57163\uff1a2007\u301c2011\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u5e74\u5ea6GDP\u6210\u9577\u7387&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2008\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5e74\u5ea6GDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u9023\u56db\u5b63\u8ca0\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\uff0c\u8b93\u5f8c\u9762\u9023\u56db\u5b63\u666f\u6c23\u8ddf\u8457\u5927\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc\u5efa\u7acb\u5e02\u5834\u4fe1\u5fc3\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u666f\u6c23\u89f8\u5e95\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u8b93\u4f01\u696d\u958b\u59cb\u6062\u5fa9\u64f4\u5927\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u96c7\u54e1\u7684\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u6709\u5c31\u696d\u624d\u80fd\u5e36\u52d5\u6c11\u9593\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7dad\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u6efe\u8f2a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_04.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57164\uff1a1980\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u521d\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u4eba\u6578&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_05.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57165\uff1a1980\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u7e8c\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u4eba\u6578&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u904e\u9577\u671f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0d\u65b7\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u6536\u5165\u9032\u5165\u7a69\u5b9a\u671f\uff0c\u6c11\u9593\u8ca1\u5bcc\u548c\u5132\u84c4\u7d2f\u7a4d\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u9019\u652f\u6490\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u6c11\u9593\u6d88\u8cbb\u7a69\u5b9a\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u4ee5\u50b5\u5ea6\u65e5\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4ee5\u6574\u9ad4\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u7d71\u8a08\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u6c11\u9593\u8ca0\u50b5\u4f54\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u6bd4\u91cd\u5df2\u7d93\u964d\u523040\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u9ede\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u9084\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6d88\u8cbb\u7387\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u900f\u652f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u9084\u4e0d\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9084\u4e0d\u81f3\u65bc\u57282019\u5e74\u5c31\u51fa\u73fe\u5d29\u6f70\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5c0e\u81f4\u666f\u6c23\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_06.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57166\uff1a1980\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca0\u50b5\u5c0d\u500b\u4eba\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6240\u5f97\u6bd4\u91cd&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/\">https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_07.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57167\uff1a1995\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8207\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u8b8a\u5316&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.macromicro.me\/\">https:\/\/www.macromicro.me<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b78\u751f\u8cb8\u6b3e\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u672a\u7206\u5f48<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_09.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57168\uff1a2003\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u9593\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7d50\u69cb\u8b8a\u5316&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/\">https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u6c11\u9593\u50b5\u52d9\u78ba\u5be6\u4e0d\u65b7\u7684\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6bd4\u91cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u623f\u5730\u7522\u8cb8\u6b3e\u9084\u6c92\u8d85\u8d8a2008\u5e74\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6c7d\u8eca\u8cb8\u6b3e\u548c\u5b78\u751f\u8cb8\u6b3e\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93\u8d85\u8d8a2008\u5e74\u7684\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u7684\u8cb8\u6b3e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5b78\u751f\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u8cb8\u6b3e\u91d1\u984d\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\uff0c\u511f\u9084\u8cb8\u6b3e\u51fa\u554f\u984c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u5b78\u751f\u8cb8\u6b3e\u9019\u500b\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u7bc0\uff0c\u65e9\u665a\u6703\u51fa\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e0d\u77e5\u4f55\u6642\u5f15\u7206\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_11.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57169\uff1a2003\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u5404\u7a2e\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u9593\u50b5\u52d9\u5ef6\u9072\u511f\u9084\u91d1\u984d\u8b8a\u5316&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/\">https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u9593\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7684\u5ef6\u9072\u9084\u6b3e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u9084\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u96a8\u8457FED\u6301\u7e8c\u8abf\u9ad8\u57fa\u790e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7684\u5446\u5e33\u7387\u5c07\u6703\u5728\u67d0\u500b\u6642\u5019\u5927\u5e45\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u70ba\u4f55FED\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u57282019\u5e74\u660e\u986f\u8e29\u524e\u8eca\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5347\u606f\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u52d5\u80fd\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u5f8c\u7e7c\u7121\u529b\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5FED\u653e\u6162\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8173\u6b65\uff0c\u5be6\u52d9\u4e0a\u78ba\u5be6\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u63db\uff0cFED\u6301\u7e8c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7dca\u7e2e\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8173\u6b65\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u9593\u8cc7\u91d1\u4f7f\u7528\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5ef6\u5f8c\u6c11\u9593\u8cb8\u6b3e\u9055\u7d04\u7387\u9a5f\u5347\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6c11\u9593\u4f01\u696d\u4e5f\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\u81bd\u7e7c\u7e8c\u64f4\u5927\u6295\u8cc7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_13.jpg\" alt=\"201902%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E9%80%9A%E8%B2%A8%E8%86%A8%E8%84%B9%E7%8E%87\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u571610\uff1a2017\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5168\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba2019\u5e748\u6708\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0cCPI\u57fa\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u4e86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u6703\u8ddf\u8457\u8b8a\u7684\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u662f1.5%\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u57fa\u790e\u5229\u7387\u662f2.25\u301c2.50%\uff0c\u8fd1\u671fFED\u5347\u606f\u9810\u671f\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u6563\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u50b5\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u9810\u5224\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u5347\u606f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u9700\u8981\u9810\u5224\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8457\u773c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c2018\u5e747\u6708\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u73872.9%\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u5c0d\u61c92017\u5e74\u7684\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\uff0c2018\u5e747\u6708\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0cFED\u53ef\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u9df9\u6d3e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u7b49\u52302020\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u5c31\u662f2019\u5e742\u6708\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u73fe\u5728\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u53ea\u67091.5%\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u53ea\u670950\u591a\u584a\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c2018\u5e7412\u6708\u4e00\u5ea6\u53ea\u670940\u584a\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d2018\u5e7411\u6708\u52302019\u5e741\u6708\u7684\u4f4e\u6cb9\u50f9\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u9020\u6210\u8f03\u4f4e\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u6709\u4e00\u5b63\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5ef6\u6eef\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u84572019\u5e74Q4\u7684WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u8ddf50\u584a\u7f8e\u5143\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5c31\u597d\uff0c\u85aa\u8cc7\u6210\u9577\u5982\u679c\u9084\u67093%\uff0c\u90a32020\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\uff0c\u641e\u4e0d\u597d\u6703\u98c6\u52303%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\u9020\u6210\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u8a08\u7b97\u5dee\u7570\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_14.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u571611\uff1a2017\u5e7410\u6708\u81f3\u4eca\u7f8e\u570b\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff08%\uff09&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/\">https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u5957\u7528\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u6578\u64da\u4e0a\uff0c2017\u5e749\u6708\u523012\u6708\uff0c\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u57fa\u671f\uff0c\u5c0d\u61c9\u52302018\u5e749\u6708\u523012\u6708\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u5c31\u76f8\u5c0d\u6ed1\u5f31\uff0c\u7576\u71362018\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u666f\u6c23\u78ba\u5be6\u6709\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\u9084\u4e0d\u5230\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5fb5\u5146\uff0c2019\u5e741\u6708\u52304\u6708\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u6578\u64da\u53ef\u671b\u89f8\u5e95\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u5feb\u7684\u53c8\u8981\u9762\u5c0d4\u500b\u6708\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u9ad8\u57fa\u671f\uff0c\u76f4\u52309\u6708\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u624d\u56de\u5230\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u524d\u9762\u6240\u63d0\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u7b49\u52302019\u5e74\u9032\u5165\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u5c31\u6703\u660e\u986f\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u9084\u8981\u6490\u904e\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u4f4e\u6f6e\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7684\u90a3\u9ebc\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5c1a\u4e0d\u7528\u5c0d\u65bc2019\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u592a\u904e\u64d4\u6182\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/images\/pic_234_1502_16.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u571612\uff1a\u7f8e\u570bS&amp;P500\u4f01\u696d\u6bcf\u80a1\u7372\u5229\u76c8\u9918\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u4f54GDP\u6bd4\u91cd&nbsp;<br><br>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/\">https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u548c2019\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u9762\u81e8ESP\u7684\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\uff0c2019\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5f88\u9ad8\u6a5f\u7387\u80fd\u5920\u6062\u5fa9\u539f\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5546\u696d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6c11\u9593\u4f01\u696d\u9084\u662f\u52c7\u65bc\u7dad\u6301\u64f4\u5f35\u6295\u8cc7\uff0cEPS\u4e5f\u6703\u91cd\u6f14\u57fa\u671f\u6548\u61c9\uff0c2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u548c2019\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u7684\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u7b49\u52302019\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u548c2020\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u8b8a\u6210\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u57fa\u671f\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684EPS\uff0c\u8868\u73fe\u5c31\u6703\u660e\u986f\u597d\u8f49\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c0d2019\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4fdd\u6301\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u904e\u65bc\u60b2\u89c0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttp:\/\/www.naipo.com\/Portals\/1\/web_tw\/Knowledge_Center\/Editorial\/IPNC_190410_1502.htm\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u5927\u578b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u57282018\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4ee5 <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.moneydj.com\/joe\/2019\/04\/12\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%ef%bc%9a%e6%88%90%e9%95%b7%e8%b6%a8%e7%b7%a9%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e5%b0%9a%e6%9c%aa%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80\/\" 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